Dynamic Inoperability Input-output Model Based Vulnerability Analysis For Interdependent Infrastructures In Chemical Industrial Parks

Chemical industrial parks provide economic scale and sustainable development opportunities for industrial symbiosis and process integration,where there exist interdependent infrastructures for water supply,power,and communication.However,increased information linkages and network integration can cause system complexity in operation and management,which is vulnerable to accident cascade effects.Taking the interdependent infrastructure in chemical industrial parks as the study target,this thesis presents vulnerability evaluation and optimization studies based on static inoperability input-output model(IIM)and dynamic inoperability input-output model(DIIM),for single infrastructure and associated infrastructure.Taking the single infrastructure water system as a case study,we propose a comprehensive framework of water network vulnerability assessment based on DIIM,to address the failure propagation effect among water-using plants of integrated network.The potential loss degree of system structure and function under the joint impact of system sensitivity and resilience(i.e.,vulnerability)is investigated,and the interdependency degree of system components is analyzed.Then,the demand-driven IIM and supply-driven IIM are respectively used to calculate disturbances effects on the system,and simulate the disturbance propagation and recovery trajectories under disaster.Based on system performance curves,the robustness,adaptability,and recoverability of each system are evaluated.The results show that the higher dependence of components on disturbance sources leads to the larger final inoperability;the more integrated water networks are the more resistant to disaster propagation and less restored to the ideal state.The study can provide supporting information for addressing interdependent system failures and identifying system vulnerabilities.To improve the vulnerability and enhance the competitiveness of integrated optimal water networks,we develop a two-stage vulnerability optimization model based on DIIM.It aims to determine optimal resource allocation for integrated optimal water networks under disaster disturbances with minimum restoration cost and maximum system resilience as the objective function.The model is validated by a series of specific water networks.The results show that the more integrated the water network,the less restoration resources are needed and the lower the total restoration cost.Resilience of different integration degrees of water networks shows different reduction rates with restoration cost reduction,the higher the integration degree,the slower the decline rate.In addition,the best restoration strategy for integrated water network is obtained,which allows to maintain the system normal operation with the lowest restoration cost,where the lowest restoration cost without integrated water network is about 3.5 times of the most integrated water network in the case.The developed model can be applied as risk and vulnerability mitigation strategies at the park scale to support sustainable water management.Safe operation of the water distribution system is highly dependent on the power supply.For the failure propagation of water and power interconnection infrastructure,we propose an analytical model to quantify the interdependence between power and water distribution system vulnerabilities.The model aims to determine the cascading effects of power outages on the water supply ability.A set of quantitative metrics based on power and water supply serve curves is proposed to determine the interdependence of vulnerability.The proposed analytical model is validated with an IEEE 33 bus distribution system that supplies pumping stations of a 15-node test water distribution system,considering multiple tank storage capacities scenarios,single and multiple line failure scenarios,and different time periods when disruptions occur to affect the vulnerability of interdependent systems.The results show that sensitivity of the water distribution network to power outages diminishes as the amount of load line outages increases,and that increased tank capacity reduces the decay rate of water supply by compensating for water shortages during power system outages.The vulnerability analysis and vulnerability optimization model for water networks,and the interdependent infrastructure analysis model proposed in this study can provide methodological guidance for failure propagation and vulnerability assessment of interdependent systems,and provide theoretical support for enhancing infrastructure resilience and sustainability management for industrial parks.