Research On Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics And Promotion Strategy Of Urban Resilience In Shandong Province

With the rapid development of urbanization,the problems faced by urban development are becoming more and more complex.Extreme weather disasters,financial crisis,ecological environment damage and global disease epidemic are becoming increasingly prominent,which pose a huge threat to the safety of human production and life.Based on this background,urban resilience has become an emerging research topic.Its essence is the city’s ability to resist,recover and adapt to the interference and impact of external uncertainty,so as to maintain the healthy development of the urban system.In terms of research perspective,this study combed the research on urban resilience at home and abroad,especially the research on resilience evaluation,thus breaking through the traditional thinking of focusing on “level” in the resilience evaluation based on the concept of sustainable development,starting with the three“capacity” attributes of urban resilience,resilience and adaptability,and selecting the corresponding indicators to build the urban resilience evaluation index system.In terms of research content,this paper not only evaluates the comprehensive capacity of urban resilience,but also summarizes and refines the characteristics and laws of space-time evolution of Shandong Province in the past decade.In addition,with the goal of“effectively improving the ability”,the optimization mechanism of improving toughness is discussed from the dimension of improving toughness.This study aims to answer the following important practical questions: What are the current situation,development trend,spatial characteristics and main problems of urban resilience in Shandong Province? What mechanisms can be used to optimize it? What behaviors can improve urban resilience?This paper comprehensively uses entropy method,multi-index comprehensive weighted evaluation method,spatial autocorrelation analysis method,Jenks natural breakpoint classification method and geographical detector model,with the help of Arc GIS spatial analysis tool,Geo Da software and RStudio software,and with the use of 2011 to 2020 index data,deeply analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of urban resilience in Shandong Province,and puts forward optimization strategies for urban resilience in Shandong Province,The following results and conclusions are finally obtained:(1)Based on the urban vulnerability theory,adaptive cycle theory,man-land relationship theory and sustainable development theory,an evaluation index system of urban resilience in Shandong Province is constructed,including four subsystems of urban economic resilience,urban social resilience,urban infrastructure resilience and urban ecological resilience,including 22 specific indicators.(2)The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience in Shandong Province are analyzed.In general,the overall level of urban resilience in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2020 is low,but the development of urban resilience is gradually increasing,and there are many cities in the low level of resilience;In terms of the degree of spatial agglomeration,the degree of urban resilience spatial agglomeration in Shandong Province first decreased and then increased,and the overall agglomeration showed a relatively stable state.According to the development situation from 2011 to2020,cities with high urban resilience are mainly concentrated in the central and eastern part of Shandong Province.These cities have large development potential,large population,complete infrastructure and good environmental protection;The urban resilience index in the southern region of Shandong Province is low,and most of them are cities with relatively slow development speed.(3)The influence degree of various influencing factors on the spatial differentiation of urban resilience in Shandong Province in different years is significantly different.Among them,the impact factors of urban economic resilience have the largest intensity,followed by the impact factors of urban infrastructure resilience and urban social resilience,and the impact factors of urban ecological resilience have the smallest intensity.In the three periods of 2011,2016 and 2020,the major q values are fiscal revenue,infrastructure construction and network penetration.From a single factor,the poor fiscal revenue,the expected improvement of social security,the imperfect infrastructure construction and the low level of comprehensive utilization of waste have hindered the improvement of urban resilience.(4)According to the evolution trend of urban resilience in Shandong Province,corresponding promotion strategies are proposed in terms of urban economic resilience,urban social resilience,urban infrastructure resilience and urban ecological resilience.