Study On The Evolution Of Stakeholders’ Strategies For Green Retrofit Of Traditional Residential Buildings Based On Consumer Group Behavior Analysis

Green retrofit project of traditional residential buildings is one of the important ways to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the construction industry and achieve the China’s "double carbon" goals on the macro level,and is the result of the game of stakeholders on the micro level.From the perspective of the whole market,the development trend of green retrofit of traditional residential buildings depends on the behavioral interaction among the government,investment retrofitting enterprises and consumer groups.Therefore,the dynamic change process of residents’ intention to green retrofit and its influence on the behavior of the government,investment retrofitting enterprises and residents need to be analyzed.From the perspective of the partial market,the integrated retrofit of traditional apartment complexes presupposes that the resident groups agree to the retrofit.Therefore,it is necessary to study the evolutionary mechanism of apartment complexes residents’ intention to green retrofit and the transformation process of their behavior,and to explore how to enhance residents’ intention to participate.Based on this,this paper focuses on the analysis of consumer group behavior from two perspectives,and studies the dynamic change process of intention to retrofit within the resident group and the dynamic evolution process of stakeholders’ game and its mutual influence,which has theoretical and practical significance,and also provides reference for the government to formulate green retrofit policies of traditional residential buildings.The main innovation points are:(1)From the perspective of the whole market of green retrofit of traditional residential buildings,a SIR dissemination model of residents’ intention to green retrofit is constructed,and it is coupled with the tripartite game model of the government,investment retrofitting enterprises and residents.Then,through numerical simulation,the dissemination laws of intention for green retrofit among resident groups and its influence on the evolution process of the tripartite game are analyzed.The results show that: the rate at which the triad of government,investment retrofitting enterprises and residents reaches steady state is influenced by the impact of changes in the level of social climate on the conversion rate of potential and participating residents to immune residents.When the rate of enterprises investment and residents participation increases,the rate of government choice of incentive strategies decreases;greater government regulation and subsidies will increase the intention of residents and retrofitting enterprises to participate.The ideal steady state without government incentives can be achieved when the group size of participating residents is increased by improving the level of government publicity and education and the technology level of the enterprises;the intention of enterprises to invest is closely related to the cognitive benefits and the level of risk perception of residents.(2)From the perspective of green retrofit of traditional apartment complexes,a SEIR dissemination model of residents’ intention to green retrofit of traditional apartment complexes is constructed.Then,the strategic interaction among government,social capitals and apartment complexes residents under the PPP model is introduced into the dissemination model to define the state transformation probability of resident groups in traditional apartment complexes.Finally,the evolution laws of residents’ intention to green retrofit of traditional apartment complexes are analyzed.The results show that: the behavior of government regulation and social capitals’ effort to retrofit can motivate the number of the apartment complexes resident agreeing to green retrofit to meet the proportional limit;the faster the government chooses the strategy of regulation and the social capitals choose the strategy of effort to retrofit,the faster the number of apartment complexes residents agreeing to green retrofit reaches a steady state;when the level of government publicity and education is too low,the cost of government regulation or the subsidy given to apartment complexes residents is too high,the green retrofit of traditional apartment complexes cannot be achieved.