| With the rapid development of motorization and changes in travel habits of the hospital visiting population,tremendous pressure has been placed on hospital parking systems.In this context,as representative urban public facilities,it is imperative to conduct in-depth studies of the parking mechanics of Grade-3A hospitals,optimize parking lot construction,and regulate parking behaviors.Comprehensive Grade-3A hospitals,due to their large scale and high medical standards,attract more patients,thus,their parking issues are even more pronounced and representative.This paper takes comprehensive Grade-3A hospitals as the research objects,forecasts parking demand,establishes parking configuration indicators,and by analyzing sample data of temporary parking,sets up planning indicators for temporary parking.This aims to alleviate the problem of "difficulty in parking" at hospitals,reduce traffic congestion around hospitals,and provide a scientific method for refined parking management.This paper reveals the basic laws of hospital parking through the analysis of gate data from parking lots within comprehensive Grade-3A hospitals and on-site research data.It examines the time-varying characteristics of commuting and non-commuting vehicles,parking queue characteristics,characteristics of on-street and off-street parking lots around the hospital,and temporary parking characteristics.The research finds that the parking characteristic indicators of hospitals show cyclical changes over time and are relatively stable;furthermore,the parking demand of the hospital is very rigid,which provides a theoretical basis for the subsequent parking demand forecast for the hospital.By comparing several basic parking demand forecast models,according to the characteristics of the hospital and the advantages and disadvantages of the model,the multiple regression-Logit model and the parking generation rate model are finally selected to predict hospital parking demand.For the multiple regression-Logit model,a multiple linear regression model based on hospital scale factors is first established to predict the outpatient volume of the hospital,and then a parking behavior choice model for the visiting population is established based on the multiple Logit model through questionnaire data.By collecting sample data of temporary drop-off vehicles on the spot,the differences between different types of temporary parking vehicles and temporary parking behaviors are analyzed,the samples are classified by drop-off and pick-up,and a suitable queuing theory model is constructed based on the parking duration distribution of taxis,network cars,and private cars,and the arrival distribution of temporary parking vehicles.The scale of temporary drop-off and pick-up berths is calculated,and the spatial and plane layout requirements of temporary parking berths are given.Taking Nanjing Gulou Hospital as a case for instance analysis,two parking demand prediction models were constructed to predict the number of parking berths to be allocated.The error in prediction accuracy between the multiple regression-Logit model and the parking generation rate model was found to be only around 5%.Comparing with the actual number of parking berths,combined with the current situation of parking problems in Gulou Hospital,it can be determined how many additional parking berths Gulou Hospital needs to add when it is expanded in the future. |
