| Safety is the first element of civil aviation Operation risk is a potential hidden danger affecting operation safety Operational risk management and control refers to evaluating the dynamic changes of factor index data on the basis of effectively identifying the factors affecting operational safety,and putting forward effective management and control measures in stages according to the evaluation results,which is an important means to ensure operational safety In this dissertation,the conceptual catastrophe theory K-Means clustering evaluation index system of operational vulnerability and the evaluation of operational vulnerability based on catastrophe theory are studied.Firstly,the anti-vulnerability mechanism is applied to operational risk management and control.According to the barbell strategy of anti-vulnerability security risk prevention and control,operational risks are controlled from two aspects: extreme risk preference and extreme risk aversion.Secondly,in the aspect of risk extreme preference management and control operation risk,the measures such as setting up standby teams and adopting advanced visualization system are put forward from the perspective of redundant rational trial and error In the aspect of extreme risk aversion,the operational risk factors are classified according to the vulnerability characteristic elements,and the multi-level operational vulnerability evaluation index system of two stages before and during flight is constructed.Then the weight of vulnerability evaluation index is determined by using entropy weight method and variable weight method.Based on catastrophe theory,the operational vulnerability of two stages before and during flight is calculated K-Means clustering algorithm is used to cluster the running vulnerability,and the classification effect is obtained when the variable weight equalization coefficient is 0.3.Finally,the model is used to evaluate an example,and from the perspective of anti-vulnerability risk extreme aversion,it is further concluded that the age difference between the pilot and the co-pilot is less than 18 and they often fly as partners in the pre-flight stage It is suggested that the captain and co-pilot should have fewer flights and less total flight time in the past month for the vulnerability in the flight stage The risk management and control based on anti-vulnerability mechanism in this thesis can provide new ideas for the occurrence of unsafe accidents,which is of great significance. |
