Research On The Carbon Emission Prediction Of Residential Buildings In Beijing Under The Background Of "Double Carbon"

Under the background of accelerated urbanization and rapid economic growth,urban population is increasing,urban space is expanding,and various economic activities are gathering,which makes urban housing construction develop rapidly and carbon emissions of residential buildings rise continuously.With the proposed goals of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" in Beijing,as well as the introduction of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and other policies,green development has become more and more consensus.As the main source of carbon emissions,the building sector will undertake more and more tasks of energy conservation and emission reduction,and residential buildings have become the key field of emission reduction work.Therefore,the Beijing municipal government needs to control the carbon emission of residential buildings while ensuring economic development,so as to ensure that the emission reduction commitment can be fulfilled on time.The key to control the carbon emission of residential buildings is to clarify the influencing factors,make the mechanism of the carbon emission of residential buildings,and carry out energy-saving and emission reduction measures according to the influencing factors.Based on the carbon emission of residential buildings in operation stage,this paper makes a reasonable prediction of the future development trend of carbon emission of residential buildings in operation stage by using the LCA theory and combining the STIRPAT model,scenario analysis method and Monte Carlo simulation method.Firstly,based on the data of the Statistical yearbook of Beijing from 2000 to 2020,this paper calculates the operational carbon emissions of residential buildings in Beijing in each year by using the energy splitting method of different industries.Then,based on STIRPAT model and ridge regression,the relationship model between carbon emission and influencing factors was obtained.According to the regression results,the key influencing factors were determined.The relationship model between carbon emission and key influencing factors is established to demonstrate its feasibility as a scenario prediction model.Based on scenario analysis method,static scenario is set up.Two scenarios,baseline scenario and green development scenario,are set up to determine the probability distribution of each variable.In this paper,the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to dynamically simulate and predict the future carbon emissions of residential buildings in Beijing,and the carbon emission trends under different scenarios are obtained.Through comparative analysis,the driving forces of carbon emission change are deeply analyzed,the main controllable factors are found,and suggestions on energy conservation and emission reduction measures are put forward accordingly,providing a basis for the development of building energy conservation strategic planning.This study found that per capita living area,per capita living energy,per capita GDP,urbanization rate,per capita disposable income,residents’ consumption level,energy consumption per ten thousand GDP,central heating housing area,and the proportion of new residential buildings have significant effects on the operating carbon emissions of residential buildings in Beijing.Under the effect of Beijing’s "14th Five-Year Plan" energy conservation and emission reduction policy,the operating carbon emission rate of residential buildings has significantly decreased,and the carbon emission intensity can achieve the "14th Five-Year Plan" emission reduction target of Beijing,but it still cannot achieve the "carbon peak" target of residential buildings.Through factor decomposition,it is found that permanent resident population,centralized heating area,residential energy consumption,energy consumption per unit GDP,and newly built residential area contribute the most to the carbon emission reduction of residential buildings in Beijing.Therefore,the carbon emission reduction of residential buildings should focus on the improvement of development planning,population control,and residential building development area.Promote green and clean energy,improve the energy mix,raise green standards,and strengthen supervision and management;We will improve incentive policies and implement differentiated incentive policies for different subjects.In this paper,"scenario analysis method + Monte Carlo simulation method" is used to predict carbon emissions,and a relatively objective prediction model is established to further enrich the research method system of building carbon emissions prediction.The predicted research results of this paper will help the government to formulate development plans for energy conservation and emission reduction in the building sector in advance,and promote energy conservation and low-carbon development in the building sector.