Calculation And Peak Prediction Of Terminal Energy Consumption And Carbon Emission Of Urban Residential Buildings In Hot-summer And Cold-winter Zone

Since the industrial revolution,human society and economy have prospered and developed,social productivity and living standards have been continuously improved.At the same time,it has also begun to face severe climate change problems and pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction.The construction sector is one of the three major areas of energy conservation and emission reduction,and has greater energy conservation and emission reduction potential compared with the industrial sector.The latitude span of China is large,and the climate characteristics of different regions show great regional differences.In recent years,with the growth of urban residents’ income and the improvement of living standards,the proportion of energy consumption and carbon emissions of urban residential buildings in hot-summer and cold-winter zone has increased rapidly.It is worth noting that the winter heating demand in this area is increasing,and the heating energy consumption and carbon emissions of urban residential buildings are also showing a trend of "from scratch,rapid growth".With the approaching of China’s 2030 carbon emission peak commitment,China’s construction carbon emission peak is facing challenges,and due to the trend of building energy consumption and carbon emission moving southward and the increasingly prominent winter heating problem in hot-summer and cold-winter zone,the hot areas of building energy conservation work in the future will also show a trend of moving southward.At present,there are some weak points in the research of building energy consumption and carbon emission data calculation at the terminal level of buildings in China,especially for the statistical research of urban residential buildings and heating terminal energy consumption in hotsummer and cold-winter zone,which is an important support and basis for building energy conservation and emission reduction in the future.Based on the existing research,this paper focuses on the calculation and prediction of energy consumption and carbon emissions of urban residential buildings in hotsummer and cold-winter zone,puts forward the calculation framework based on "topdown + bottom-up" calculation method system and scenario prediction model based on Kaya identity,and completes the calculation and prediction of terminal energy consumption and carbon emissions of urban residential buildings in hot-summer and cold-winter zone,And put forward policy suggestions.The specific research work is as follows:(1)Referring to the American residential building energy consumption survey(RECS),the calculation method system of terminal energy consumption and carbon emission of urban residential buildings in hot-summer and cold-winter zone is constructed.First,building energy consumption splitting model is constructed to calculate the total energy consumption and carbon emissions of urban residential buildings in hotsummer and cold-winter zone from top to bottom based on the energy balance table;Secondly,based on the calculation ideas and methods of leap model,the terminal energy consumption decomposition model is established to decompose the total energy consumption and carbon emissions of sub terminal of urban residential buildings from bottom to top.(2)Based on Kaya identity,the scenario prediction model of energy consumption and carbon emission of urban residential buildings in hot-summer and cold-winter zone is established,and the scenario simulation analysis of "static certainty + dynamic random probability" is completed.The results show that:1)Under the static scenario,the growth trend,peak time and peak value of terminal energy consumption of urban residential buildings in hot-summer and cold-winter zone show differences,among which the increase of heating terminal energy consumption is the largest.From the total data,the energy consumption and carbon emissions of urban residential buildings show a trend of "rapid growth to slow growth to gradual decline".Under the benchmark scenario,the energy consumption and carbon emissions of urban residential buildings reach the peak in 2045 and 2040 respectively,and the peak is about twice that of the benchmark year.The decomposition results of influencing factors show that urbanization rate,per capita residential building area,heating and air conditioning terminal energy consumption intensity have a greater impact on carbon peak.2)Under the dynamic scenario,the peak time and peak range of energy consumption and carbon emission of urban residential buildings in hot summer and cold winter area present normal distribution,and the peak time of energy consumption is 2045(±4)The peak value was 14646.8(±906.2)million tons of standard coal,and the peak time of carbon emission is 2040(±4)The peak value was 27297.6(±1777.6)million tons of carbon dioxide.There is a great correlation between per capita residential area,carbon emission factor,heating and air conditioning energy consumption intensity and the peak to peak carbon emission,and the uncertainty of variables has a great impact on the peak to peak carbon emission.(3)Based on the calculation and prediction results of the terminal energy consumption and carbon emission of urban residential buildings in hot-summer and coldwinter zone,combined with the main problems and experiences of urban residential buildings energy conservation and emission reduction,the paper puts forward the policy suggestions for energy conservation and emission reduction of urban residential buildings in this area.Through controlling the growth scale of urban residential building area,setting the goal of "double control" of energy consumption and carbon emission,the energy efficiency of urban residential buildings in hot-summer and cold-winter zone will be improved.The relevant results of this paper enrich the calculation method system of terminal energy consumption and carbon emission of urban residential buildings to a certain extent.At the same time,the research area is selected as the key area of future building energy conservation and emission reduction work,which provides data support for the setting of building energy conservation and emission reduction targets in hot-summer and coldwinter zone,and also provides reference for the formulation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies in this area.