Carbon Emission Evaluation And Uncertainty Analysis During The Operation Stage Of Higher Education Institutions

In recent years,with the growth in the number and scale of universities,their energy consumption and carbon emissions have increased.The introduction of the national"Dual Carbon"strategy has brought increasing attention to the issue of carbon reduction in universities.Evaluating carbon emissions in universities and analyzing their potential for carbon reduction is of great significance for achieving the"Dual Carbon"goals of universities.In this paper,a deterministic accounting model for university carbon emissions and an uncertainty quantification model for university carbon emissions were constructed based on the IPCC inventory method and the IPCC national greenhouse gas inventory guidelines,respectively.A carbon accounting list and accounting boundary for university carbon emissions were proposed,and the calculation methods for carbon emissions from university buildings,transportation,and living were determined.The data quality index evaluation method,beta function,and empirical rule were used to calculate the fluctuation range of the inventory data,and a 95%confidence interval for carbon emissions was obtained through Monte Carlo simulation to improve the reliability of the accounting results.Finally,a case study was conducted on the Hua Jiang Campus of Guilin University of Electronic Technology,and its carbon emissions were evaluated based on the two models mentioned above,and further carbon reduction strategies were proposed.The research results of a deterministic accounting model for carbon emissions from instance objects indicate that the carbon emissions generated by electricity consumption in on-campus buildings accounted for 90.79%,91.15%,89.32%,and 90.24%of the total carbon emissions from 2018 to 2021,while on-campus living activities accounted for7.74%,7.45%,9.24%,and 8.44%of the total carbon emissions,and on-campus transportation activities accounted for 1.47%,1.40%,1.44%,and 1.32%of the total carbon emissions.Building energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions at the Huajiang campus.As the growth rate of electricity parameters increases from 10%to 50%,the growth rate of total carbon emissions increases from 9%to 45.1%,indicating a high sensitivity of the electricity indicators.The research results of a quantitative model for the uncertainty of carbon emissions from instance objects indicate that the accounting results for carbon emissions are influenced by the uncertainties of parameters,models,and scenarios.Specifically,the uncertainty in inventory data caused a deviation in the accounting results of 15.0%,15.0%,14.8%,and 14.9%for the years 2018 to 2021,and the 95%confidence intervals for total carbon emissions were 9350-16800 t CO₂eq,11500-20700 t CO₂eq,10500-18700 t CO₂eq,and 12100-21700 t CO₂eq,respectively.The uncertainty of the quantification model caused a deviation of 0.7%in the accounting results.In the scenario where electricity production is generated by thermal power,the uncertainty caused the greatest deviation in the accounting results,which were 2.9%,3.3%,32.0%,and 37.8%,respectively.The research findings of the comprehensive model suggest emission reduction strategies,indicating that solar thermal power generation and carbon sequestration through green plants yield the best results.By implementing solar thermal power generation on the roofs of the buildings in Hua Jiang Campus,an annual reduction of 5166 metric tons of carbon emissions can be achieved.Alternatively,to offset the entire carbon emissions of Hua Jiang Campus in 2021 using carbon sequestration through green plants,a greening rate of 65.65%is required.