Research On The Impact Of Subsidy Decline On The Development Of Regional Distributed Photovoltaic Industry

Vigorously developing new energy is the key to promoting the zero carbonization of electric power,green and low-carbon development of energy and realizing the goal of “Peak of carbon emission and Carbon Neutrality”.Photovoltaic power generation has been one of the key directions of new energy development due to its rapid technological progress and great resource potential.In 2021,the installed capacity of distributed PV in China accounted for more than 50% of the newly added PV installed capacity,and distributed PV has increasingly become the mainstream.China has implemented a large-scale subsidy policy to promote the development of the photovoltaic power generation industry,and has made the domestic photovoltaic market the largest photovoltaic market in the world,with the cumulative and annual installed photovoltaic capacity remaining the first in the world.However,the subsidy policy has caused a series of problems in the photovoltaic industry,especially the distributed photovoltaic industry,such as subsidy arrears,damage to users’ interests,low quality of photovoltaic products,making the subsidy ineffective.At the same time,the decline of subsidies continues to have an impact and impact on the development of the industry,and the development of distributed photovoltaics is currently facing many obstacles.Aiming to answer the important practical problem of “what impact does the subsidy decline have on China’s regional distributed photovoltaic industry and how to optimize the subsidy policy”,firstly,this paper based on the evolutionary game theory,reveals the strategic interaction mechanism between distributed photovoltaic enterprises and users when investing in the construction of distributed photovoltaic projects under the influence of subsidy decline,and the impact of the changes of parameters on the decision-making of both parties is discussed in detail.Secondly,the actual impact of subsidy decline on the development of distributed photovoltaic industry in different regions is further explored through empirical methods.Analysis of evolutionary game model and simulation results show that in the benchmark case,enterprises tend not to participate in the project construction and users tend to participate;Under the current construction cost and income level of photovoltaic power stations,it is not yet possible to completely eliminate distributed photovoltaic subsidies;The empirical results show that there is a negative relationship between subsidy decline and distributed PV installation,regional economic and energy characteristics and other influencing factors show regional heterogeneity,indicating that the popularity of distributed PV in developed regions is higher.At the end of the study,some suggestions were put forward,such as retaining certain subsidies in the short term,improving the mechanisms of carbon trading and green card trading,exploring a mutually beneficial and win-win cooperative development model,clarifying the basis for subsidy decline,and accelerating the settlement of subsidy arrears.