Research On Residential Investment And Government Subsidy Strategies For Household Photovoltaic Projects

With the high-speed development of national economy,China’s energy demand is increasingly booming.To solve the mismatch between energy supply and demand,build a low-carbon energy system,and alleviate environmental pollution,have become an important social issue.Due to its green,safe,natural and sustainable characteristics,renewable energy power generation has gradually been regarded as a breakthrough to solve the negative environmental effects brought by economic growth and alleviate the contradiction between energy supply and demand.In China,solar energy resources are widely distributed,so photovoltaic power generation technology has large potential.Compared with the large-scale centralized photovoltaic power plants and industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaics,small-scale household distributed photovoltaics have many unique advantages,including reducing the large-scale investment in the centralized power stations,reducing the line losses caused by long-distance power transmission,promoting the matching of power supply and demand in a limited geographic space,supporting the adjustment of traditional power structure and the transformation of relationship between supply and demand.However,due to the volatility and intermittent characteristics of renewable energy,the output power of renewable energy is unstable.Not only that,the long investment return period,high initial investment costs,and significant uncertainties in the investment process all hinder the spread of photovoltaic industry.To respond to the national action goal of carbon peak and carbon neutral,accelerate small-scale photovoltaic equipment investment and support the transformation of residents into power prosumers in the energy system,the government needs to adopt some appropriate policy measures to guide the investment planning of photovoltaic projects in the early stage.Based on the analysis of the research status,this dissertation identifies the influencing factors of household photovoltaic project investment decisions,explores the multi-stage evolution trend of household photovoltaic project investment and government subsidy considering the financing support factors,and determines the subsidy direction and subsidy intensity at different stages of household photovoltaic industry.For the middle stage of photovoltaic industry,this dissertation includes the natural resources,photovoltaic technology,induced policy,as well as the uncertainties of feed in tariff(FIT)and investment cost into the photovoltaic subsidy policy-making process.Subsidy policies for household photovoltaic projects in deterministic and uncertain environments are formulated in accordance with regional characteristics and stage characteristics.The major research contents and innovations of this dissertation are as below:(1)Research on the multi-stage evolution strategies of investment decision and subsidy policy for household photovoltaic projects.This research regards financing support factors as the key influencing factors influencing household photovoltaic project investment decisions and subsidy policy formulations.A tripartite evolutionary game model is applied to theoretically analyze the evolutionary stable strategies of the government,banks,and photovoltaic investors in China’s distributed photovoltaic market,evaluate the influences of the installed capacity of investors,the level of government subsidies and the proportion of bank loans on the evolution path of the three participants,and quantitatively explore the contribution and limitations of government subsidies and bank loans to the proliferation of photovoltaic facilities.The results show that government subsidies and bank loans can effectively induce investors to start installing or installing larger capacity photovoltaic equipment only in the middle stage of residential photovoltaic industry development.(2)Research on the investment decision and subsidy policy of household photovoltaic projects in a deterministic environment.This research regards natural resource factors,photovoltaic technology factors and inducement policy factors as the key influencing factors affecting household photovoltaic project investment decisions and subsidy policy formulations.A Stackelberg game model is used to explore the government’s optimal incentive policies and residents’ strategic choices in the middle stage of the photovoltaic industry development,evaluate the effects of regional solar radiation intensity,levelized cost of electricity and feed-in tariffs on residential installed capacity and government subsidy level,and quantitatively explore the contribution and limitations of subsidy policies in the transformation process of residents’ decision-making.(3)Research on investment decision-making and subsidy policies of household photovoltaic projects in an uncertain environment.The research regards the uncertainties of FIT and investment cost as the key factors affecting the photovoltaic project options value and investment opportunities.A real options model is applied to explore the optimal investment decision for household photovoltaic investors in the middle stage of the photovoltaic industry development,and the government’s optimal incentive strategy in China’s photovoltaic market.The impact of drift rates and volatility rates of FIT and investment costs on investment thresholds and project values is assessed.A variety of solutions are designed and discussed from different perspectives,including various subsidy periods,various FIT contracts,different resource areas,and different regulatory policies.Subsidy policy has become an important means to promote the diffusion of household photovoltaic projects.This dissertation considers the factors of financing support,natural resources,photovoltaic technology and inducted policy,and studies the multi-stage evolution trend of household photovoltaic project residents’ investment and government subsidies.This dissertation explores the residents’ investment decisions and government subsidy policies in the deterministic and uncertain environment.These studies provide unique insights and valuable theoretical support for household photovoltaic investment decision makers to make investment plans and policy-makers to establish subsidy policies.In the follow-up work,based on the real data of China’s household photovoltaic market,it is necessary to make an empirical attribution analysis of household photovoltaic project investment,incorporate individual characteristics into the formulation of diversified subsidy policies for household photovoltaic projects,evaluate the impact of the downward trend of subsidy policies on residents’ investment decisions,and explore the exit time of subsidy policies.