Dynamic Analysis Of Shipping Industry Chain Based On Matrix Time Series

Shipping is an important part of modern international trade,whose vigorous development has brought great convenience to human society.Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in late 2019,international trade and communication,along with the shipping industry have been severely affected,which lend additional uncertainty about the world economy.At present,it is urgent to get world economy back to its order and recover.The existing academic researches mainly focuse on the changes of single products in the international trade,such as oil,iron ore,coal and food,which only explore their internal changes.However,it is difficult to dig out the external reasons for the changes,and even harder to apply them to the investment field.Therefore,based on the representative index data of the shipping industry from mid-2014 to the end of 2022,a matrix time series model is constructed in this paper to describe the cross-market dynamic change mode in the shipping industry in multiple dimensions and fine-grained.Furthermore,based on sorting out the key points of the industrial chain transmission,prospective guidance indicators for the application of downstream investment are pointed out.In this paper,a high-dimensional time series model matrix autoregression(MAR)is constructed.Compared with the traditional vector autoregression(VAR),the matrix time series can greatly reduce the dimension of the model and improve the clarity of the presented data on the basis of preserving the original data structure.In order to further improve the analysis results of the shipping industry chain,whose structure is visualized in a newly established two-stage MAR-Copula model.Based on the parameter estimation results of MAR model and Granger causality test,this paper summarizes how the shipping industry work.In the shipping segment of oil & gas transportation,upstream oil price changes will affect the next two weeks of oil shipment prices; commodities in the dry bulk sector have a long-term effect on their freight prices in both directions of more than two weeks.The trend of container transport plate is independent,and its fluctuation is mainly caused by the imbalance of market supply and demand.The most critical link in the shipping industry chain is the price of upstream goods,which will directly affect the shipping rate of the middle stream and the trend of the downstream stock index.The middle stream and the downstream are not obviously related,while they are the weather vane of the whole shipping industry and assume the important role of the barometer of the international economy.In addition to the industry development prospects,the price of upstream shipping products and macroeconomic indicators are more forward-looking and instructive for the theme investment in shipping industry.