Static And Dynamic Location Research Of Dry Port Based On Demand Forecast

As extension of ports,not only dry ports attract container sources,but also promote the development of inland area.Many ports are establishing dry ports in inland areas,which intensifies the competition among ports and leads to the unreasonable layout of dry ports and the waste of resources.Scientific and reasonable planning of anhydrous port is particularly important.Based on demand forecast and site selection evaluation of dry port,this dissertation analyzes the site selection of dry port from single stage and two stages.Firstly,from the perspectives of economic factors,traffic factors and political factors,this dissertation has built up an evaluation index system of dry ports site selection,and analysis the potential of establishing dry ports of eleven cities in Jiangxi province.The particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to solve the fuzzy c-means clustering model.Then clustering model of location selection of dry ports in Jiangxi province was solved.According to the three cluster centers of the location of dry port in Jiangxi province and the membership of eleven cities to the three cluster centers in Jiangxi province,eleven cities in Jiangxi province are divided into three categories.From the perspective of multi-economic focus linkage development,it is suggested that new dry ports should be sited in Jiujiang,Ganzhou,Ji 'an,Yichun,Fuzhou,Shangrao,so as to promote the overall economic development of Jiangxi province.From the perspective of balanced regional development,it is suggested that Jingdezhen,Pingxiang,Xinyu and Yingtan should strengthen the construction of transportation infrastructure and vigorously develop logistics industry,so as to promote the balance of regional economy.Secondly,the multi-factor dynamic analysis method is used to predict the volume of container production in Jiangxi province.According to the regression fitting function of import and export value of each city and the regression function of GDP,the first step is to predict the import and export value.The second step is to analyze future Jiangxi province road and the railway transportation proportion according to the main goods export way proportion.Next,the proportion of suitable box goods is determined by export goods category.Then,other parameters in the multi-factor dynamic analysis method were set,and the container production volume of each city in Jiangxi province was predicted by the results of the first three steps.Finally,the model of dry port site selection is established and the single-stage site selection scheme and two-stage site selection scheme are analyzed.Considering the maximization of port profit and the maximization of consumers' total utility comprehensively,this dissertation takes this as the objective function to establish the dynamic site selection model of waterless port.Different dry port siting schemes of single stage and two stages are analyzed,and the influence of different proportions of port profit and consumer utility on siting schemes is discussed.At last,it is analyzed that improving the number of berth,routes,service quality and the number of dry ports are effective measures to enhance the competitiveness of ports and it is proved that dynamic site selection is better than static site selection.In this dissertation,the site selection of dry port is studied in two situations,namely,single stage and two stages.The results of practical data analysis show that two-stage site selection is better than single-stage site selection,which verifies the advantages of dynamic site selection.The prediction of container demand is more in line with the actual situation and has reference value for the new dry port in Jiangxi province.