| Traveler’s route choice behavior is the core of traffic allocation model,which plays a crucial role in traffic flow prediction,traffic planning and management,transportation infrastructure improvement and new policy research.Starting from the study of the influence mechanism of conformity effect on traveler’s route choice behavior,this paper sorts out the research status of conformity effect,travel route choice behavior and travel time value research at home and abroad.By exploring traveler travel route choice behavior preference mechanism and conformity psychology based on the decision-making process mechanism,a prediction model of traveler’s travel route choice behavior under the influence of conformity effect is established.The model expands the research framework of travel route selection behavior,and provides a reference for future research on the dynamic evolution of traffic flow,traffic congestion charging strategy,and route flow induction methods,and provides guidance for the realization of customized and personalized traffic supply services.The main research content of this paper is divided into four parts:(1)A survey of travelers’ travel route choice behavior under the conformity effect.Based on the relevant research on travel route choice behavior at home and abroad,the exogenous variables that affect traveler’s route choice behavior are selected,and the hypothetical scenario of travel route choice preference under the conformity effect is designed by the uniform design method;Based on the theory of conformity behavior,a framework for measuring the attributes of travel route selection conformity psychological decision-making was constructed,and the measurement items of each variable were designed by referring to mature scales at home and abroad.Taking Nanjing as the survey city,this paper obtains the data of traveler’s travel route choice preference under the conformity effect and the data of conformity mentality decisionmaking process,and conducts basic descriptive statistical analysis and reliability and validity tests on the data.(2)Research on traveler’s travel route choice behavior preference under the conformity effect.Based on the travel route choice preference data under the conformity effect,this paper constructs a travel route choice preference model based on the random parameter logit model,and compares it with the mixed logit model.Stata16.0 software is used to estimate the model of the survey data,and the solution results reveal the influence of the traveler’s personal attributes,traveler’s travel attributes and travel path attributes on the traveler’s choice preference characteristics.At the same time,this paper deduces the marginal substitution rate of traveler choice proportion and travel time,and the marginal substitution rate of traveler choice proportion and travel cost,and then obtains the equivalent perceived travel time and perceived travel cost of traveler choice proportion.(3)Research on the decision-making process of travelers’ travel route selection under the conformity effect.On the basis of summarizing the theoretical framework of conformity behavior,this paper starts with the psychological attributes of the decision-making process of traveler’s travel route selection under the conformity effect,and constructs a travel route selection conformity psychological decision-making process model based on the MIMIC model.The AMOS software is used for model fitting,which verifies the adaptability of the theoretical model to the actual decision-making process of travelers.Combined with the interaction mechanism between latent variables and traveler attribute variables,latent variables and observed variables,and latent variables,the internal mechanism of traveler’s travel route choice behavior conformity psychology was explored,and the key psychological factors affecting travel route choice were identified.(4)Prediction of traveler’s travel route choice behavior coupled with conformity mental decision-making process.Based on the application status of the discrete choice model(ICLV)with integrated psychological attributes,this paper constructs the RPLM-ICLV model incorporating the travel route conformity psychological decision-making process,and forms a travel route choice behavior prediction model framework,which includes the traveler’s personal attributes,traveler’s travel attribute,travel path attribute and conformity mental attribute.The results show that compared with the model without latent variables,the RPLM-ICLV model has better fitting effect and higher explanatory power,which further expands the applicability of the conformity behavior theory model and the ICLV model. |
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