Research On The Choice Of Intercity Travel Mode Under The Public Health Emergency

Intercity transport has long played an important role in meeting the travel needs of residents and promoting regional progress and social development.The COVID-19 epidemic,the most serious public health emergency since the founding of China,brought unprecedented impact to the transport industry,and the intercity travel behaviour of travellers during this period also changed to a certain extent due to changes in travel environment and travel risk perception.Based on this background,this thesis examines the changes in intercity travel behaviour and the factors and mechanisms influencing the choice of travel mode in the context of public health emergencies,with implications for the prediction and portrayal of intercity travel behaviour in the context of similar public health emergencies in the future,and the formulation of relevant policies in the intercity transport system.The main research components include the following:(1)In order to clarify the factors influencing intercity travel mode choice under public health emergencies,the concepts of public health emergencies and intercity travel are first explained,and the background and object of this study are clarified.Then,this thesis systematically analyses the impact of public health emergencies on intercity travel behaviour and identifies four categories of factors that influence intercity travel mode choice under public health emergencies: basic personal attributes,intercity travel behaviour characteristics,travel mode characteristics and psychological perception factors.(2)In order to obtain specific information on the intercity travel characteristics of travellers under public health emergencies,a combination of RP and SP was used to design the questionnaire according to the needs of the study,in which the psychological perception factors that could not be directly obtained were described and measured using the Likert scale.After passing the reliability and validity tests on the 779 valid survey data collected,a basic analysis of the relevant data was conducted and the intercity travel behaviour under public health emergencies was compared with that before the outbreak.It was found that: the proportion of flexible travel demand in the leisure and tourism category decreased from 29.3% to 12.3%;the frequency of intercity travel decreased significantly for most travellers;The majority of travellers had a significant decrease in the frequency of intercity trips;some travellers who preferred public transport would switch to using cars for intercity trips.(3)In order to investigate the psychological mechanism of intercity travel intention under public health emergencies,the theory of protective motivation was introduced to extend the theory of planned behaviour,and psychological factors such as behavioural attitude,perceived susceptibility and perceived efficacy were selected to form a psychological decision-making framework for intercity travel mode.Based on this framework,the MIMIC model was constructed for five types of intercity travel intention under public health emergencies: airplane,high-speed railway,general railway,longdistance passenger transport and car,to explore the mechanisms of interaction between the psychological perception factors and between objective cause variables and latent variables of each mode of travel.(4)In order to analyse the travel mode choice behaviour of travellers under public health emergencies,a travel mode choice MNL model and a travel mode choice ICLV model combined with a travel intention model are developed on the basis of random utility theory to systematically and comprehensively analyse the mechanism of influence of various influencing factors on inter-city travel mode choice under public health emergencies.By calculating the marginal effects of the influencing factors and quantifying the degree of utility of the influencing factors,the model provides a reference for suggesting targeted policy optimisation.(5)The results of the empirical study and analysis of the results were carried out by substituting specific survey data,and the MIMIC travel intention model was tested and solved with the help of Amos software."The results show that there is a difference in the psychological intention decision making mechanism of each intercity travel mode,among which the behavioural intention of car travelers is most influenced by the positive effect of "perceived severity",which is mainly caused by the impact of public health emergencies on their travel.The results show that intercity travel decisions under public health emergencies are affected by a combination of factors such as gender,travel companions,travel purpose and perceived effectiveness.Finally,the results of the model and the marginal effects are combined to propose policy recommendations for optimising access to hubs,active and timely awareness of the epidemic,and increasing the resilience of transport systems.