Risk Assessment Of Tropical Cyclone-induced Strong Winds For Offshore Wind Power In Coastal Areas Of The South China

The problem of global warming is becoming increasingly serious,and the whole society pays high attention to the development and utilization of renewable energy.China’s energy sector has actively optimized and adjusted its energy structure and continued to promote green and low-carbon development.As a typical renewable energy project,offshore wind power has broad prospects for development.At present,China’s offshore wind power construction projects have entered a period of rapid development.As a high-cost and high-risk industry,the risk assessment for offshore wind power are increasingly valued by project investors.The coastal areas of South China are rich in wind resources,but typhoon activities are frequent in the sea area,and offshore wind farms are threatened by typhoon and gale.Typhoon winds can damage or even collapse wind turbines.Even though the most advanced wind turbine design is adopted,offshore wind turbines are still vulnerable when encountering typhoon winds.In order to ensure the safe operation of offshore wind power projects along the coast of South China,it is urgent to carry out scientific assessment of the disaster risk caused by typhoons and gales faced by offshore wind farms in the region.This paper focuses on the risk assessment of typhoon and gale for offshore wind power in the coastal area of South China.This can not only deepen the scientific understanding of typhoon disaster mechanism and risk in theory,but also provide scientific reference for risk management of offshore wind farms in practice,improve the ability of offshore wind farms to cope with typhoon disasters,and effectively promote the healthy development of clean energy.Firstly,the research uses the report of China’s offshore wind power industry and relevant documents to analyze the disaster-bearing characteristics of offshore wind farms,including wind turbines,installed capacity,offshore distance,construction area,etc.The best track data of tropical cyclones from 1979 to 2020 issued by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC)from 2001 to 2020 were further selected to Statistically analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of typhoon activities,the intensity distribution characteristics of typhoon gale and the distribution characteristics of typhoon gale range in the coastal areas of South China.And further analyze the risk factors caused by typhoon and strong winds and the characteristics of disaster bearing bodies in offshore wind farms,construct a risk assessment model for typhoon and strong winds in offshore wind farms,and partition the typhoon and strong wind risks faced by offshore wind farms along the coast of South China.Finally,based on the above risk assessment results,targeted suggestions are proposed for the management of typhoon and strong wind risks in offshore wind farms.The research results show that during the development of wind power in the coastal areas of South China,the installed capacity of wind farms is concentrated in200-500 MW.At present,the offshore distance of the site is within 10-55 km,and the project construction area is mostly 20-60 km ~2;There are 7.4 typhoons entering the coast of South China every year,which are concentrated in June-October;The frequency and intensity of typhoons along the coast of South China decreased from east to west,from south to north,and from coast to inland;The average value of the2-minute mean maximum wind speed near the center of the South China coastal typhoon is 22.7m/s;The historical maximum wind speed decreased significantly from sea to land;The high value of the maximum wind speed radius of the typhoon is mainly distributed along the coast of Hainan Island and the sea area to the east and the sea area to the east of Leizhou Peninsula;The risk assessment model based on the characteristics of the disaster-bearing body and the hazard of the disaster-causing factors can scientifically and quantitatively assess the typhoon and gale risks faced by offshore wind turbines.In the coastal area of South China,the areas with high risk of typhoon and gale in offshore wind farms are mainly located in the eastern coastal area of Leizhou Peninsula,while in the coastal area of the central and eastern part of Guangdong Province,they are faced with low risk of typhoon and gale.Based on the aforementioned disaster mechanism and risk assessment results,suggestions are made for risk management plans for insurance companies and offshore wind power stakeholders.