Prediction Of Typhoon Extreme Wind Speeds Based On Vickery Wind Field Numerical Simulation

The coastal region of South China is a superior geographical environment and rapid economic development.At the same time,a large number of high-rise and large-span structures has emerged in this area.However,South China is also the area most seriously affected by typhoons in China,so the wind load becomes the main control load in the design of the above wind-sensitive structures.In this paper,Monte Carlo numerical simulation method based on Vickery’s typhoon wind field model was used to select enough samples for typhoon risk analysis.Through the research,the extreme wind speeds of eight coastal cities along the coast of South China.This paper can make up for the lack of typhoon observation data to a certain extent,and provide a certain reference for the wind resistance design in the coastal areas of South China.The specific research work is as follows:1.The probability distribution models of typhoon key parameters were established for eight cities along the coast of South China.In the study,based on the typhoon historical records from 1949 to 2019,the simulated circle method was used to extract the research samples of each simulated point with two simulated circle radii of 250 km and 500 km respectively.After calculating the key parameters of typhoon by using the recorded data,the probability distribution models were established and tested for goodness of fit.The optimal probability distribution models affecting eight cities of Hong Kong、Shenzhen、Guangzhou、Xiamen、Fuzhou、Wenzhou、Ningbo and Shanghai were obtained.2.The applicability of Vickery’s typhoon wind field model in the coastal area of South China was studied.Firstly,the Vickery’s typhoon wind field model was introduced in detail;Then the process of solving typhoon wind field model by the finite difference method was given;Finally,the adaptability of the wind field model was verified by using typhoon "Meranti",and the simulated wind speed time history curves and the isokinetic diagrams of typhoon horizontal wind field were obtained.The results show that the simulated wind speeds of Vickery’s typhoon wind field model were in good agreement with the measured data.When the typhoon observation data was missing or unreliable,the model can be used to simulate the typhoon in the coastal area of South China.3.The two parameters that have great influence on the simulation,the maximum wind speed radius and the pressure profile parameters,were analyzed.Comparing the calculation results of different models with the measured wind speed at the station,the results show that the model established by Vickery had a good simulation effect on the typhoon in South China.Therefore,in the absence of survey data,the model can be used to calculate the maximum wind speed radius and parameter B.4.The extreme wind speeds of eight cities along the coast of South China were estimated.The straight-line path was used for simulation.Based on the probability distribution models of typhoon key parameters,the key parameters were randomly sampled,and the parameters were substituted into the Vickery’s typhoon wind field model to calculate the simulated point wind speeds.The extreme wind speed sequences of typhoon were obtained by simulating the virtual typhoon in 1000 years.The extreme wind speeds with return periods of 10 years、30 years、50 years、100 years and 200 years in eight cities such as Hong Kong and Shenzhen were statistically inferred by using Gumbel distribution function and Weibull distribution function respectively.