| Along with the rapid development of China’s economy and society,people have a stronger demand for quality education resources,and the basic education policy has changed from "schooling" to "good schooling" for everyone,and education resources have changed from "extended development" to "internal development".At the same time,with the introduction of the new population policy,the enrollment policy of migrant children has been relaxed,and the number of children of elementary school age has been increasing.Chengguan District is the central district of Lanzhou,Gansu Province,and the lack of supply and uneven distribution of some of its elementary school education resources contradict the demand of primary school-age population still exists.It is worth exploring how to optimally adjust the layout of elementary school and the division of school districts,and then ensure that most primary school-age children can meet the requirement of enrolling in schools close to their homes.This paper takes Chengguan District of Lanzhou as the research scope,selects elementary school education facilities as the research object,studies the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of elementary school distribution between 2005 and 2021 based on the theory of spatial allocation of basic education resources,educational equity and supply and demand,explores the problems of the current school district division,and proposes an optimization strategy of elementary school district division in Chengguan District based on the balance of supply and demand.This paper focuses on two parts: first,the spatial and temporal evolution of elementary school layout.Firstly,the changes of each element of elementary school from 2005 to 2021 are analyzed;secondly,the spatial distribution pattern and change trend of each element of elementary school are analyzed using spatial agglomeration,average nearest neighbor and nuclear density;the accessibility of elementary school in 2006,2009,2013,2017 and 2021 are analyzed using buffer zone and isochronous model.Secondly,the study of optimizing the division of elementary school districts in Chengguan District based on the balance between supply and demand.Firstly,a vector autoregressive model is developed for the multivariate time series variables from 2002 to 2021 to predict the elementary school age population in Chengguan District from 2022 to 2030,and secondly,the relationship between supply and demand of elementary school in Chengguan District in 2030 is analyzed based on density estimation to obtain the optimized elementary school layout adjustment.Based on the Voronoi diagram of school district division intention and combined with the layout plan of adjusted elementary school,an optimization diagram of elementary school district division in Chengguan District based on the balance of supply and demand is generated,and finally,suggestions for the optimization of compulsory education school district division are proposed.The results of the study show that the spatial and temporal evolution of elementary school in Chengguan District from 2005 to 2021 is mainly "dense in the middle and west,sparse in the south and north",showing a "core-periphery" development pattern in general.In terms of accessibility,the overall level of walking accessibility in primary schools is good,but there are large fractures in the coverage of elementary school services in the northern and southern areas of Chengguan District,forming "a belt plus an area" with gaps in the scope of elementary school services;secondly,nearly 24% of the buffer zone coverage of 500 m elementary school service radius lacks the configuration of elementary school.In addition,nearly 10% of the residential areas in the 15-minute walking circle are not within the reach of elementary schools.Finally,based on the contradiction between supply and demand,this paper proposes measures for the planning and construction of elementary school,such as the removal,renovation and expansion,allocation and construction of new elementary school,and makes suggestions for the optimization of school district division at the macro,meso and micro levels,such as unified school district division management,dynamic adjustment of teacher distribution,reasonable prediction of school population size,and optimization of road systems,in order to provide reference for similar areas,planning and education departments to optimize school district division. |
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