| Since 2013,with the extensive promotion of the "Belt and Road" initiative,China’s trade relations with countries along the route have become closer,and the trade mode has more choices,China-Europe Railway Express(Chongqing)as a new bridge connecting China-Europe trade,since the opening of the line has been constantly stepping up to a new level,the value of goods transported by the train,the variety of goods,the number of operations and other aspects have been greatly improved,and gradually become a supplementary product of international shipping and air transportation,highlighting its position in the construction of China-Europe international logistics channels.However,with the rapid development of the train,the game between the major countries in Europe and Asia has added some uncertainty to the macro development environment of the China-Europe Railway Express.The Western camp led by the United States,some CIS countries led by Russia and China are engaged in a three-way game,which has caused regional instability in all aspects such as politics,society,economy,military and policy,such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Lithuanian incident,which is the result of the Western camp’s game with Russia and China respectively,and has a direct impact on the China-Europe Railway Express.In addition to the direct impact,the operation of China-Europe Railway Express(Chongqing)also hides other risks,so this article will first analyze the operation status and operational risks of China-Europe Railway Express(Chongqing)under the big country game,so as to pave the way for the construction of the following index system.Secondly,in the construction of the index system,on the basis of the existing research,the optimal order chart,analytic hierarchy method and weight calculation are used to reasonably analyze the expert score,and then the criterion-layer indicators and the index-layer indicators are screened out respectively,and the construction of the China-Europe Railway Express(Chongqing)operation risk assessment index system under the big country game provides a basis for the construction of Bayesian network model.Thirdly,when constructing the Bayesian network model for the operation risk of China-Europe Railway Express(Chongqing),the conditional probability is calculated by Noisy-or gate theory for the conditional probability of lack of samples,and the mean GM(1.1)model is used to complete the data of some nodes,so as to complete the setting of Bayesian network node parameters.After completing the model construction,the quantitative data of the operation risk of China-Europe Railway Express(Chongqing)under the big country game is obtained by entering the underlying node data into the model.Through data analysis,the results show that the overall risk of China-Europe Railway Express(Chongqing)is at a medium level and the risk level is Level III.Seven nodes,such as regional ethnic conflicts,regional religious conflicts and national military development trends,are currently or have been at level 4 or above for a long time,which are the main factors causing the risk of train operation,and effective risk prevention and control work must be carried out according to the principle of risk disposal.In addition,it is also observed that the restriction of customs clearance policy is one of the most active hidden factors in the operation of the train,and according to the principle of risk disposal,risk prevention work for this node can be carried out.Finally,according to the previous research findings,on the one hand,development suggestions are put forward for the weak development of the overall research on the risk assessment of the China-Europe Railway Express(Chongqing)under the Great power game;on the other hand,targeted prevention and control measures are put forward for the main risk factors existing in the operation of the train.For example,when solving the problems existing in the indicators of military development,the current military situation of Russia is targeted.If the scope of the war expands,risk avoidance can be adopted to avoid the country in the selection of international channels and choose east-west routes to reduce the conflict of strategic interests with Russia.For another example,when solving the problem of substitutable index of nodes,it is suggested that the State Railway Group should lead Chinese enterprises to participate in the upgrading and reconstruction investment of important nodes and stations along the line,such as Marashevich,Duisburg and Dostek.On the one hand,it can increase the efficiency guarantee of China-Europe Railway Express in foreign stations,on the other hand,it can reduce the risk of substitutable nodes.For example,when solving the problems of customs clearance policy restriction indicators,it is suggested that government departments strengthen policy coordination with countries along the routes,discuss sustainable customs clearance development planning and docking,promote the upgrading and reconstruction of "congested" sections of the West,Middle and East passages of China-Europe Railway Express,and at the same time help study the countermeasures of capacity expansion and transformation of Manzhouli Station,Erenhot Station and Alashankou Station... |
