Research On Resilient Supplier Selection Method Of Prefabricated Building Parts

In recent years,with the proposal of carbon peak and carbon neutral strategic goals,the green and sustainable development of cities in the new era is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges.According to statistics,China’s construction industry accounts for 51.3% of carbon emissions.As a new green and low-carbon construction mode,prefabricated buildings are an important prerequisite for realizing the dual carbon strategy,but also have a new impact on the traditional supply chain.Due to its complex structure,construction organizations including production and transportation are too scattered,stakeholders are interdependent,and the multilateral external environment deepens the vulnerability of the supply chain,resulting in frequent supply chain interruption events.Parts supplier is an important prerequisite for the healthy operation of the prefabricated building supply chain,which directly affects the core capability of the supply chain.Therefore,exploring the resilient supplier selection method of prefabricated building parts has important theoretical and practical significance for ensuring the healthy operation of the prefabricated building supply chain.In this paper,based on the premise of resource allocation in the market mode and the parts supplier as the research object,the resilient supplier evaluation index system of prefabricated building parts was designed and Onto-FBN(Ontology-based Fuzzy Bayesian Network)was constructed parts resilient supplier evaluation model,and as a guide,using the actual project to verify the effectiveness of the model.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Resilient supply chain of prefabricated Building and connotation analysis of resilient supplier of parts.Firstly,on the basis of literature analysis and project research,through the literature review on the supply chain resilience of prefabricated buildings and the application of supplier selection,it is pointed out that in the current supply chain management of prefabricated buildings,the selection criteria for suppliers does not fundamentally solve the vulnerability of the supply chain.Combined with the resilient supply chain theory,the connotation of the resilient supply chain of prefabricated building and the resilient supplier of parts is revealed,and it is determined that the resilience of prefabricated building supply chain can be increased by selecting the most resilient supplier of parts through the relevant theoretical model,which can meet the practical needs.(2)Design the evaluation index system of resilient supplier of assembly building parts.Firstly,the evaluation indexes of resilient suppliers of parts are condensed by using the root theory,and 36 measurement indexes are initially selected.Based on the results of the questionnaire,factor analysis was conducted to select and optimize the indicators,and finally the evaluation index system of prefabricated building parts resilient supplier with 10 common factors and 28 index variables was determined.The index system not only require suppliers on the one hand,need has the ability to supply level,satisfy customer orders,on the other hand also stressed part supplier needs both have passive reaction ability and the ability to adapt,to cope with any breakage possible events that can lead to the supply chain,and general contracting enterprises also need to set up in advance warning and preparation mechanism,external risk management ability and keen market sense of smell.The interpretation and quantitative processing of different indicators lay a foundation for the optimization and evaluation of resilient suppliers of parts.(3)The construction of onto-FBN resilient supplier evaluation model promotes the effective combination of quantitative mathematical reasoning and qualitative rule reasoning,give full play to the advantages of ontology modeling and fuzzy Bayesian network mathematical reasoning,and realizes the collaborative reasoning between fuzzy Bayesian network and ontology.Firstly,the ontology development software Protégé is used to construct the domain ontology of parts suppliers,and the ontology knowledge base is built based on the probability expansion of OWL language,so as to give play to the advantages of ontology modeling expression and realize the standardization of knowledge structured expression,in line with the core development concept of assembly building,but also to expand the fuzzy Bayesian network and ontology collaborative reasoning platform;The mapping from ontology to fuzzy Bayesian network was completed based on ontology mapping rules,the tacit knowledge such as supplier resilience was expressed by probability,and the supplier resilience was optimized by probabilistic numerical reasoning.The evaluation rule base of SWRL parts suppliers is constructed,based on which ontology rule inference is carried out,so as to realize the evaluation of suppliers.Taking the actual assembly project as an example,the evaluation index system designed and onto-FBN evaluation model are used to verify and analyze.The results show that the evaluation index system of resilient supplier of prefabricated building parts designed in this paper not only contains important indexes such as quality and production cost,but also includes supplier resilience index,so as to enhance the resilience ability of continuous supply and rapid recovery after preparation,and reflect the capability of supplier in all aspects comprehensively.The onto-FBN parts resilient supplier evaluation model vividly expresses the elasticity of parts suppliers.The output results of the model are consistent with the actual results,which further verifies the scientificity and rationality of the model,and has a certain practical guiding significance for the selection of parts suppliers of assembled buildings.