Evaluation Of Comprehensive Benefits Of Prefabricated Buildings Based On ANP Method And Evolutionary Game Theory

China is currently undergoing unprecedented urbanization process,and has generated a large demand for residential housing.The previous cast-in-place concrete buildings have issues like poor working environment and low industrialization,which does not meet the development requirements of contemporary green,ecological and environmental protection standard.Therefore,It is imperative to develop energy saving,less time consuming,less pollution,high-quality and environmentally-friendly prefabricated buildings technology.Since 2016,the average annual growth rate of prefabricated buildings is55%in China.In the year 2020 alone,the surface area of newly-started prefabricated building reach 522million m².While the prefabricated building area maintains an upward trend,contradiction and imbalance among the economic,social and environmental benefits of prefabricated building become even more prominent,and the problems in comprehensive benefit evaluation of prefabricated buildings needs to be solved urgently.Focusing on solve the unbalanced and contradictory issues of environmental benefits,social benefits and economic benefits of the prefabricated buildings,ANP and evolutionary game theory were used to conduct comprehensive benefits evaluation,then analyzed the strategies and incentives that promotes prefabricated buildings.The main research conclusions are as follows:（1）Combining the principles of hierarchy,quantification and comprehensiveness in the selected evaluation index system,the index selection was carried out,and a total of 18 impact indicators were obtained,of which environmental benefits,economic benefits and social benefits each contained 6 impact indicators,and then established ANP model includes target layer,criterion layer and indicator layer.（2）Adopt the index system in the ANP model as the basis for setting the basic assumption parameters of the evolutionary game theory model,and then analyze the government’s incentive measures to promote the development of prefabricated buildings.Construct an evolutionary game theory model with the government,developers and consumers as players.Using dynamic replication equations and combining with the basic assumptions,the equilibrium points of the three-party were obtained,which were M₈（1,1,1）,M₇（1,1,0）and M₆（1,0,1）,respectively.（3）According to the case study,The criteria for comprehensive benefits evaluation of prefabricated buildings was ranked from high to low based on their weight factors environmental benefits,economic benefits and social benefits.And their weights were 0.44,0.39,and 0.17 respectively.Through analyzing the index level,the three high-weight indicators were reducing waste,building upfront costs and conducive to land resources usage,and their total priorities were 0.16,0.117,and 0.102 respectively.To ensure the comprehensive benefits of prefabricated buildings,the above indicators were applied BIM technology and a series of measures for refined management.（4）After tripartite evolutionary game path rendering,the impact of changes in government subsidies for developers and consumers on the evolutionary path were analyzed.The results conclude that the government should subsidize developers while granting consumer subsidies,and deduce the government’s incentives to promote prefabricated buildings.And provided the government with theoretical basis and technical support for promoting larger scale of prefabricated buildings the government to promote the scale of.