| The safety of maritime navigation is one of the most important issues in marine development.With the expansion of the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road",the influence has become more and more far-reaching.Assessing and analyzing maritime navigation safety risks objectively,and providing corresponding means and measures,have become an important breakthrough point in the development of the Silk Road.A good navigation safety environment can not only improve overall shipping safety,but also attract other countries to participate in and build the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" jointly,which is of great significance to China’s development in the new era.To effectively assess the navigation risk level of "21st century Maritime Silk Road" and maintain the navigation safety,the navigation safety risk level of three core sea areas of "21st century Maritime Silk Road" in different quarters was assessed.Based on AIS data,the navigation safety risk assessment index system of Hormuz Strait,Malacca Strait,Colombo port and its adjacent waters in 2018 was constructed by using cloud model theory and evaluation cloud model.The weight coefficient of each index was determined by entropy weight method,and the navigation safety risk grade assessment result of delimited sea area is obtained.In addition,we conducted a sensitivity analysis of the final evaluation results by control variables.The results showed that the navigation safety risks of the three core sea areas are in the medium risk level.Among them,the maritime navigation safety risk of area 1 with Hormuz Strait as the core is medium in four quarters;In the first,second and third quarters,the maritime navigation safety risk of area 2 with Colombo port as the core is medium,and it is higher in the fourth quarter;In the first,second and fourth quarters,the maritime navigation safety risk of the sea area 3 with Malacca Strait as the core is medium,and it is lower in the third quarter.Based on the evaluation results of the navigation safety risk levels in the three core sea areas,we believe that the cloud model has good stability in the process of evaluating problems.It can evaluate the safety risks of maritime navigation effectively and can be used in future navigation safety risk evaluation.In addition,it is suggested that the attention should be paid to the distribution of large ships and the changes in the number of ships during the navigation,what’s more,the early warning and safety precautions should be well done while navigating,and the probability of risk occurrence should be reduced.Finally,the safety of navigation on the "21st century Maritime Silk Road" will be realized and the development of global shipping industry will be promoted. |
