Multimodal Transport Route Optimization Based On Cost And Risk Under Low-carbon Background

The steady growth of China’s logistics industry has driven the development of China’s transportation industry to a certain extent,and the social freight volume also shows a trend of continuous growth on the whole.However,with the intensification of the global greenhouse effect,China’s transportation industry is facing the pressure of emission reduction with tight time and heavy tasks.As an important means to adjust the transportation structure,multimodal transport plays a role in reducing costs and increasing efficiency,and is of great significance to achieve the "double carbon goal".Multimodal transport operators are often faced with complex transportation schemes in the actual transportation.They should not only consider how to reduce transportation costs,safeguard their own interests,reduce carbon emissions and respond to the issue of national low-carbon logistics,but also pursue the quality of cargo transportation.Therefore,under the government’s low-carbon policy,it is of great significance to study the cost and risk factors in the route selection of multimodal transport,so as to ensure the economy,timeliness and environmental protection of cargo transportation.At the same time,considering the safety and reliability of cargo transportation,it is of great significance to formulate a route selection plan and transportation scheme in line with the actual transportation situation.This paper focuses on the analysis of cost and risk factors in multimodal transport.The research content and work mainly include the following three points:(1)The definition of multimodal transport risk is given,considering the existing multimodal transport path optimization model.The consideration of risk factors is mostly based on individual subjective assignment or according to the probability of accidents in previous road sections.In the absence of quantitative calculation,the differences of different transportation subjects in different environments are ignored.Starting from the transportation link and transit link,the risk analysis of three transportation modes of railway,highway and water transportation is carried out from the perspective of "human,machine,management and environment".Combined with the relevant literature of multimodal transport risk and the opinions of experts,the multimodal transport risk assessment index system is constructed;Combined with grey theory,comprehensive evaluation method and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,a risk assessment based on grey fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is constructed for quantitative calculation of risk.(2)Identify and calculate carbon emissions from transportation and transfer links.Considering the transportation cost,transit cost,carbon emission cost,time cost,carbon emission limitation and risk factors in the transportation process,a dual objective multimodal transport route optimization model with the minimum total transportation cost and risk as the optimization objective is established under the carbon tax policy and carbon trading policy respectively.From the perspective of the multimodal transport operator,in order to meet different constraints,while ensuring the economic benefits of multimodal transport,Improve the safety and reliability of transportation.(3)Combined with the node data in the example,the multi focus method is used to construct the virtual network diagram,and the corresponding decoding and coding methods are designed.NSGA-II algorithm is used to solve a set of more balanced Pareto optimal solutions for the case,which reasonably handles a trade-off state between transportation cost and transportation risk in the process of multimodal transport,and proves the rationality and effectiveness of the model and algorithm.It provides a decision-making reference for decision-makers under certain conditions.