Research On The Evolution And Regulation Of Water Use Structure In Henan Province

Water resources are the basic resources for human survival and development,and an important guarantee to support high-quality economic and social development and maintain a good ecological environment.Henan Province is a large agricultural province in China,and the contradiction between water resources supply and demand is especially prominent,which seriously restricts the process of its high-quality economic and social development.This paper takes Henan Province as the research object and carries out research on the evolution and regulation of water use structure in order to provide decision reference for the efficient use and protection management for Henan Province’s water resources,which is of great significance to promote the coordinated development of Henan Province’s water resources and economy and society.The main research contents and results are as follows.(1)Based on the water resources and their development and utilization data from2010 to 2020,the current water supply structure of Henan Province(2020),the total water consumption in Henan Province and 18 cities and the changes of water consumption in the 9 major industries were statistically analyzed according to 9 major water consumption industries,including agricultural irrigation,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery and livestock,thermal power,general industry,construction,service industry,urban residential life,rural residential life and artificial ecological environment.The Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient were introduced to analyze the spatial equilibrium characteristics of water consumption in the 9 major industries in Henan Province.The results show that from 2010 to 2020,the total water consumption in Henan Province is generally on an upward trend,among which the water consumption in forestry,animal husbandry,fishery and livestock,thermal power and general industry is generally on a downward trend,the water consumption in rural residential life is relatively stable,and the water consumption in other industries is on an upward trend;the total water consumption in Zhumadian,Puyang,Sanmenxia,Jiaozuo,Shangqiu,Zhoukou and Hebi is on a downward trend,and the total water consumption in other cities is on an upward trend.Except for the service industry,the balance of spatial distribution of water consumption in all other industries has improved,with the balance of spatial distribution of water consumption in agricultural irrigation,general industry,urban residential life and rural residential life in Henan Province being higher.(2)Based on the structural quantitative analysis method,this paper analyzes the diversification and concentration of water use structure in Henan Province and 18provincial municipalities,and reveals the changing characteristics of the water use structure anti-interference ability,the degree of water aggregation and the degree of control of the water use structure by the main water industries.The results show that from 2010 to 2020,the water use structure of Henan Province has become more resistant to disturbance,the degree of water use aggregation has decreased,the degree of control of irrigation water on farmland has decreased,and the water use structure has tended to be balanced;Zhengzhou,Luoyang,Pingdingshan,Sanmenxia,Jiyuan and other cities have stronger resistance to disturbance,lower degree of water use aggregation,and lower degree of control of irrigation water on farmland.The cities under the jurisdiction of Xinxiang,Puyang,Shangqiu and Zhoukou have weaker anti-disturbance ability and higher degree of water aggregation,and the amount of water used for irrigation on farmland still occupies an absolute advantage in the water use structure;among the cities under the jurisdiction of Henan Province,Zhengzhou has the strongest anti-disturbance ability,the lowest degree of water aggregation and the highest degree of balanced water use structure.(3)Based on the principle of"nature-society"binary water cycle,we analyzed and summarized the mechanism and factors affecting the change of water consumption in different industries from three aspects:natural factors,economic and social factors,and ecological environment;based on Kaya’s constant equation and LMDI decomposition model,we identified the driving factors for the evolution of water consumption structure in Henan Province and 18 provincial cities.The results show that natural factors and science and technology development have a decreasing driving effect on the change of water consumption in Henan Province and various cities,while social development,economic development and ecological environment have an incremental driving effect on water consumption changes;science and technology development and economic development are the driving factors for the evolution of water use structure in Henan Province and various cities,and water use amount per ten thousand Yuan GDP,water consumption per ten thousand yuan industrial added value and gross value of tertiary industry are the main driving factors for the evolution of water use structure.(4)Combined with the driving factors of the evolution of water use structure in Henan Province,set the objective function and constraint conditions for the regulation of water use structure in Henan Province,determine the model parameters and variables,and use the simulated annealing algorithm to solve the model to establish the regulation model of water use structure in Henan Province;In the current year,the supply and demand of water resources in Henan Province and the planning years(2025 and 2030)of Henan Province and the cities are analyzed and forecasted,and key variables such as water supply sequence,total water consumption control indicators,and water use efficiency are set,and based on the established water use structure regulation Model,put forward 2025,2030 Henan Province water use structure regulation plan.The total water consumption in Henan Province in 2025 is 26.037 billion m~3,and in 2030 the total water consumption in Henan Province is 28.298 billion m~3;compared with the current situation year,the diversification of water use structure in Henan Province and provincial cities in 2025 and 2030 rises,the resistance to disturbance increases and the degree of water aggregation decreases.The regional sustainable development evaluation index system was constructed,and the sustainable development coefficient was introduced to evaluate the water use structure regulation and control scheme;the results show that the proposed water use structure regulation scheme in Henan Province can better support the sustainable development of the provincial cities in Henan Province.