Temporal And Spatial Evolution Of Emergy Water Ecological Footprint And Its Influencing Factors In The Yellow River Basin

Water resources are the basic support for the survival of human beings,and are a fundamental strategic resource for the construction of ecological civilisation and high-quality socio-economic development.The Yellow River Basin is one of the seven major river basins in China,with a vast area and a large geographic spatial span,and there is significant spatial heterogeneity in the use of water resources in the basin due to factors such as climate change,topographical features and the level of economic development.This study is based on the 13th Five-Year Plan.This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Programme of the 13th Five-Year Plan(2017YFC0404404),which is entitled"Balanced regulation and dynamic allocation of water resources in the Yellow River Basin",and adopts the energy-value theory of ecological economics to build a two-dimensional and three-dimensional energy-value water ecological footprint model of the Yellow River Basin,taking into account the characteristics of water consumption in the Yellow River Basin.Based on spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial regression models,the spatial distribution of the ecological footprint of energy-valued water in the Yellow River Basin and its influencing factors are investigated,with a view to providing references for policy formulation and planning of sustainable water resources development in the Yellow River Basin.The research work and results of this paper are as follows:(1)The energy value theory was introduced to construct a two-dimensional and three-dimensional energy-valued water ecological footprint model of the Yellow River basin.Based on the traditional water ecological footprint,this paper introduces the ecological energy value analysis theory,adopts energy value conversion rate,energy value density and water resources energy value density parameters instead of global/regional equilibrium factor and yield factor,constructs a two-dimensional and three-dimensional energy value water ecological footprint optimization model for the Yellow River basin,and improves each water use account of the basin water ecological footprint,the improved model is adapted to the water use and consumption characteristics of the Yellow River basin,so that the quantified results The improved model is adapted to the water consumption characteristics of the Yellow River Basin,so that the quantification results can more accurately reflect the water resources development and utilization situation in the study area,and lay a theoretical foundation for quantifying the energy-value water ecological footprint of the basin.(2)Based on the spatial and temporal perspective,the spatial and temporal evolution of the ecological footprint of energy-valued water in the Yellow River Basin was analyzed.In terms of time series,the per capita energy-value water ecological footprint of the Yellow River basin shows a slow growth trend during the study period,with a multi-year average value of 1.22 hm~2/cap,the highest percentage of agricultural water ecological footprint and the lowest percentage of ecological environment water footprint;the per capita energy-value water ecological carrying capacity of the basin fluctuates,with a multi-year average value of 0.72hm~2/cap,and the per capita energy-value water ecological carrying capacity of the basin is much lower than the energy-value water ecological footprint.The per capita energy-value water ecological carrying capacity of the basin is much lower than the energy-value water ecological footprint,and the depth of the energy-value water ecological footprint is greater than 1.From the spatial pattern,the per capita energy-value water ecological footprint of the basin is high in the middle and low around,and the percentage of energy-value water ecological footprint and composition components of each province(region)differ significantly;the per capita energy-value water ecological carrying capacity of the basin is high in the west and low in the east,and Qinghai and Sichuan provinces are in water ecological surplus all year round,and only consume water flow capital;the rest of the provinces(regions)show different degrees of water ecological deficit,and all need to develop water stock The rest of the provinces(regions)show different degrees of water ecology deficit,and all need to develop water resources stock to make up for the shortage of water flow capital.(3)The spatial correlation characteristics of the energy-valued water ecological footprint of the Yellow River basin were explored using the spatial autocorrelation analysis method of spatial econometrics.From the depth of the energy-valued water ecological footprint,its global Moran’s I index ranged from 0.0658 to 0.5608 during the study period,and the depth of the basin’s energy-valued water ecological footprint changed from spatially uncorrelated to significantly positive spatial correlation over time,with the"H-H"and The"H-H"and"L-L"areas gradually increased and clustered in the downstream and upstream of the basin,respectively;in terms of energy-valued water ecological footprint breadth,the basin energy-valued water ecological footprint breadth global Moran’s I index from2003-2018 ranged from 0.4331 to 0.6364,showing a strong The"H-H"and"L-L"clustering areas are located in the upper and lower reaches of the basin,respectively.The results show that the depth and breadth of the basin’s ecological footprint of energy-valued water gradually increase with time,and the capital utilization of water resources stock and flow in the basin shows positive spatial correlation,with significant inter-provincial Spatial correlation between provinces is significant.(4)The spatial influencing factors of energy-valued water ecological footprint in the Yellow River basin were explored by combining spatial econometric regression models.Based on the quantification results of the basin energy-value water ecological footprint,the spatial Durbin model with random effects was selected to explore the influencing factors on the depth of energy-value water ecological footprint.The results show that:the water consumption of 10,000 Yuan GDP,the average irrigation water consumption per mu,and the average annual temperature have positive and significant promoting effects,and there is a positive spatial spillover effect;GDP per capita,urbanization rate,and the proportion of tertiary industry output value to GDP have significant promoting effects,but the spatial spillover effect is not obvious;the water consumption of 10,000 Yuan industrial value added has a suppressive effect.