Research On The Dynamic Relationship Between Air Transport Industry And Regional Economic Growth Based On VAR Model

The advancement of economic globalization and the development of foreign trade have provided an external environment for the development of the air transport industry.As the fifth mode of transportation,air transportation is fast and safe,making it irreplaceable compared with other modes of transportation.It gradually promotes it to become another engine of economic development,directly or indirectly affecting regional economic development.With the development of the civil aviation strategy and the "One Belt and One Road" initiative,more attention has been focused on whether the development of air transport can be compatible with economic development and whether it can be coordinated with regional economic development.The occurrence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2019 has also put forward higher-level requirements for the air transportation industry.As an important part of the industrial chain and supply chain,air transportation shoulders the arduous task of maintaining the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.The research divided provinces into regions,selected 17 provinces and cities,based on the vector autoregressive model(VAR),and analyzed the interactive relationship between air transport and regional economy in each region through impulse response and variance decomposition methods.The analysis found that the regional economy of each region can promote the development of the air transportation industry,but only some regions have a significant role in promoting the growth of the regional economy.Through cluster analysis,it is found that the contribution of the regional economy to the air transportation industry and the contribution of the air transportation industry to the regional economy are divided into two stages,both of which first decline and then rise,and most regions are in the stage of declining their contribution.As the volume of the regional economy increases,the interactive relationship between the regional air transport industry and the regional economy has changed from one-way interaction to two-way interaction.Finally,corresponding policy recommendations are put forward based on the analysis results.