Research On Carbon Emission Quota Allocation Of Provincial Logistics Industry

The implementation of carbon reduction in logistics is crucial for the country to meet the“dual carbon” goal,as logistics currently consumes more than 20% of total energy consumption in society.A one-size-fits-all approach to setting emission reduction benchmarks and targets for the logistics industry in each region will fail to reflect the differentiated characteristics of each region’s emission reduction potential,making it difficult to fully mobilize each region’s enthusiasm.In order to support the development of low-carbon logistics,this paper uses the carbon emissions of the logistics industry as the research object,predicts the total amount and trend of future carbon emissions in the industry,and employs scientific and theoretical approaches to divide the industry’s carbon emission reduction tasks provincially.To begin,investigate the theory of carbon emission accounting,prediction,and quota allocation while listing and comparing models.Secondly,using a scenario analysis approach,expand and construct the STIRPAT model to predict the carbon emissions of the logistics industry from 2021 to 2035,and prefer the scenario plan that is most likely to reach the peak path of carbon emissions in the logistics industry through comparison.Then,a carbon emission quota allocation scheme for the provincial logistics industry is proposed using the entropy method,the Super-SBM model,and the ZSG-DEA model.Finally,the carbon quota for each province’s logistics industry is allocated using the predicted carbon emission scenario of the logistics industry in 2030 as the total limit,and the carbon emission reduction pressure of each province’s logistics industry is analyzed and corresponding carbon emission reduction paths are proposed.According to the findings of the study,different scenarios result in different carbon peak times for the logistics industry,as well as different peak carbon emissions.The industry’s ability to achieve carbon peak goals and reduce carbon emissions is significantly impacted by the technology’s quick development.Scenario 2 is most closely resembling the path taken by the logistics industry’s carbon emissions,which will peak at 1135 million tons by 2030.The population size and economic development level have the biggest effects on the logistics carbon quota earned by each province in the comprehensive indicators of carbon emission quota allocation in the logistics industry.Verification of the viability,efficacy,and fairness of the carbon emission quota allocation plan for the provincial logistics industry proposed in this paper includes comparing previous research and examining the environmental Gini coefficient findings.The final allocation results reveal that carbon quotas for the logistics industry differs significantly between provinces in 2030,with an overall declining trend from east to west.Shandong and Qinghai received the highest and lowest carbon quotas,respectively.In the future,13 provinces will face insufficient carbon quotas for logistics,putting more pressure on them to reduce emissions.Based on a firm understanding of carbon emissions levels and emission reduction pressure levels,each province should adopt targeted emission reduction strategies.