Research On The Development And Simulation Of Railway Logistics Transport Based On Dual Carbon Target

As an important industry in the development of the national economy,the cargo transportation industry provides a guarantee for the circulation of bulk materials required by the development of the primary and secondary industries,and injects sustained impetus into the economic development.With increased energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in all spheres of life,the greenhouse effect has become a global problem.In this situation,we put forward the idea and goal of "carbon peak" and "carbon-neutral".The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is an important transportation hub and an important driving source of economic growth in northern China,it is also the main battlefield for the incremental development of national railway freight and the development of low carbon and high quality,the growth of freight volume also puts pressure on rail logistics to increase carbon emissions.Based on the calculation of the carbon emissions of railway freight transport in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from1998 to 2019 and the sorting out of the main influencing factors,this thesis builds a forecast model for the carbon emissions of railway freight transport.At the same time,combined with the scenario analysis method,the carbon emissions under different development scenarios were simulated and simulated,and the policy suggestions were put forward to promote the low-carbon development and high-quality development of railway freight transport industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Finally,the thesis provides theoretical and practical guidance for the organization and optimization of various links of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional railway logistics transportation.The thesis designs the content in accordance with the logic of the study "characterization of the problem-process analysis-forecasting of trends-modeling of results-summary of the strategy".The results show that:(1)From 1998 to 2019,the carbon dioxide emissions of railway freight transportation in China and the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region showed a trend of "growth-decrease-growth",and the development of railway freight transportation in recent years was subjected to the double pressure from the growth of freight volume and environmental pollution.(2)In the long run,cargo transport volume,carbon emission intensity and marshalling station transfer time will aggravate the increase of carbon emissions;The proportion of nonadjustable train in marshalling station and the proportion of electric locomotive in railway bureau have an inhibitory effect on carbon emission.And the short-term correction is about 1.2 years.The results of impulse response function and variance decomposition show that the impact intensity and contribution rate of the freight transport volume,the proportion of non-adjustable train and the proportion of electric locomotive are more obvious.(3)The comparison results of prediction accuracy of data within the sample show that SVR model is the best prediction model for future carbon emissions.(4)The future railway freight transport in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can be divided into three development scenarios: baseline,medium-development and weak low-carbon,and high-development and strong low-carbon.Under the three scenarios,the realization time and the peak size of carbon emissions in 2020-2027 are different.With the increasing of railway freight transport,reasonable organization and optimization of each link of railway logistics transport can effectively control the carbon dioxide emissions of railway freight transport.The main means include: Ensure the implementation of the "road-to-rail" policy;Improve the efficiency of goods transport to reduce carbon intensity;Improve the transportation capacity of marshalling station to reduce the transfer time of trains;Optimize and adjust the cargo marshalling scheme and traffic flow path to increase the proportion of non-adjustable trains;The structure of transport vehicles should be properly adjusted to make the number of electric locomotive and diesel locomotive in railway bureau within a reasonable proportion range.