Study On The Impact Of Different Carbon Sink Subsidy Policies On The Supply Capacity Of Forest Carbon Sinks

The goal of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"has become a major strategic choice for China,but its realization process faces great challenges.China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter,with carbon emissions accounting for about 28%of the total global greenhouse gas emissions.Compared with developed countries,China’s energy structure and industrial structure are not at a high level of low carbon,and the time window for achieving the"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"goal is short.Therefore,China needs to make great efforts to achieve the"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"goal as scheduled.It is difficult to achieve complete carbon neutrality only by reducing emissions.Nature-based solutions,including forest sinks,are considered to be one of the most cost-effective and indispensable means to achieve the"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"goal.Therefore,how to give full play to the role of forest carbon sequestration policy in promoting the increase of forestry sinks and help China achieve the"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"goal is one of the focuses of the government and academia.To this end,this study uses the GAMS software to solve the dynamic optimization decision model of regional forest management including the forest carbon sink policy variables,so as to compare and analyze the impact of different carbon sink subsidies and subsidy levels on the forest rotation period and forest area,and on this basis,uses the forest carbon sink measurement model to compare and analyze the impact of different carbon sink subsidies and subsidy levels on the supply capacity of forest carbon sinks.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:（1）Both forest land area subsidy and carbon sink subsidy can promote the effective supply of forest carbon sink and realize the effective increase of forest net carbon sequestration.Specifically,forest land area subsidies mainly promote forest carbon sink supply by increasing forest land area,while carbon sink subsidies jointly promote forest carbon sink supply by extending forest rotation period and increasing forest land area.No matter how the carbon price level changes,the two subsidy policies can bring about effective forest net carbon sequestration.（2）Compared with the forest land area subsidy,the carbon sink subsidy policy has a more significant role in promoting the supply of forest carbon sinks,which can bring more forest net carbon sequestration.Specifically,when the carbon price level is 40 yuan/t CO_2e,the net carbon sequestration of forest brought by the carbon sink subsidy policy is 1 475 600 t C higher than the forest land area subsidy.When the carbon price level is 68 yuan/t CO_2e,the net carbon sequestration of forest caused by the carbon sink subsidy policy is 2 989 100 t C higher than the forest land area subsidy.When the carbon price level is 100 yuan/t CO_2e,the net carbon sequestration of forest caused by the carbon sink subsidy policy is 6 100 200 t C higher than the forest land area subsidy.（3）The change of carbon price level is directly proportional to the change of forest net carbon sequestration.The higher the carbon price level,the higher the net carbon sequestration of forest that different subsidy policies can bring.In particular,when the carbon price level rises from 40yuan/t CO_2eto 100 yuan/t CO_2e,the net carbon sequestration of forest brought by forest land area subsidies will increase from 15 400 t C to 38 900 t C.The net carbon sequestration of forests brought by the carbon sink subsidy policy will also increase from 1 491 000 t C to 6 139 100 t C.At this time,the carbon sink subsidy policy will also increase the net carbon sequestration of forests from 1 475600 t C to 6 100 200 t C compared with the forest area subsidy policy.Obviously,the higher the carbon price level,the higher the net carbon sequestration of the forest that the carbon sink subsidy policy can bring more than the forest area subsidy policy.In response to the above conclusions,this study puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions:（1）In terms of the subsidy level,the existing forest land area subsidy policy should gradually increase the subsidy level per unit area,so as to better promote the supply of forest carbon sinks.（2）In terms of subsidy methods,China should consider establishing subsidies based on carbon sequestration,and gradually transition subsidies based on forest land area to subsidies based on carbon sequestration,so as to encourage forestry to increase its sinks and better achieve the goal of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".