Research On The Evaluation And Improvement Path Of Sustainable Carrying Potential Of Tourism Environment In Beijing Tianjin Hebei Under The Background Of "Dual Carbon"

The proposal of the "dual carbon" goal is a deep reflection of the inherent requirements for achieving sustainable development,and has become an important constraint and policy direction for the development of all industries and industries during the 14 th Five Year Plan period and even longer.Tourism destinations are important spatial carriers for the tourism industry in achieving the "dual carbon" goals,and the tourism environment is the foundation for the sustainable development of tourism activities and an important prerequisite for the sustainable development of tourism destinations.Therefore,in the context of "dual carbon",evaluating the current state and future development potential of the sustainable carrying capacity of destination tourism environment has important practical significance for achieving the "dual carbon" goal.Firstly,the article provides an overview of the potential carrying capacity of the tourism environment and the related content of carbon emissions from the tourism industry,and systematically reviews the current research status at home and abroad.Under the definition of concepts,it elaborates on sustainable development theory,stakeholder theory,and grey system theory,and introduces the research methods of this article,providing methodological and theoretical support for subsequent research.Secondly,with the help of stakeholder theory and based on the "DPSIR" model,a sustainable carrying capacity indicator system for the tourism environment in Beijing Tianjin Hebei is constructed.The comprehensive evaluation method and coefficient of variation are used to evaluate the sustainable carrying capacity of the tourism environment in Beijing Tianjin Hebei as a whole and in various dimensions.Furthermore,the obstacle factor diagnostic model and grey correlation analysis are used to analyze the key factors affecting its sustainable carrying capacity.Finally,the grey prediction model is used to predict the sustainable carrying capacity potential of the tourism environment in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,and relevant improvement strategies are discussed based on the comprehensive evaluation results,key factor analysis,and prediction results.The aim is to promote the enhancement of the sustainable development potential of tourism in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and achieve sustainable development and a green and low-carbon development path.