Research On The Coordinated Development Of Agricultural Ecology-economy In Jilin Province Under The View Of Low Carbon Economy

The intensification of greenhouse gas emissions is the main cause of the frequent occurrence of extreme weather,and human activity is the main driving factor of the greenhouse gas emissions.In the 20 th report of the Communist Party of China,we mentioned that building a beautiful China should give priority to ecology,economical,intensive and green and low-carbon development.To address climate change,we must coordinate the industrial structure,pollution control and ecological protection.Agriculture is one of the sectors most severely affected by climate change and the second largest source of carbon emissions,so it is particularly important to integrate the concept of low-carbon economy through the whole process of agricultural development.As an important main grain producing area in China,Jilin Province has unique development advantages,and its primary task is to ensure food security and the supply of important agricultural products.However,the long-term production mode with high emission,high pollution and high energy consumption leads to the uncoordinated phenomenon of agricultural ecological and economic development.Therefore,from the perspective of low-carbon economy,this study takes 2000-2020 as the research period,first analyzes the general situation of agricultural ecology-economic development in Jilin Province,and then uses the carbon source coefficient method to measure agricultural carbon emissions and analyze the characteristics of their annual order change.Secondly,8 indexes are selected from agricultural ecology and agricultural economy to build an evaluation index system for the coordinated development of agricultural ecology and economy.Again,the gray correlation method is used to analyze the dynamic characteristics of the interaction between agricultural ecology and agricultural economy in the past 21 years,and then the coupling and coordination model is used to evaluate its coordinated development level from the two dimensions of time and space.On this basis,a geographical detector is used to detect the influence factors that cause the spatial and temporal differences in the agroeco-economic coordination level.The study conclusions are summarized as follows:(1)Overview of agricultural ecology-economic development in Jilin Province from the perspective of low-carbon economyThe agricultural economy of Jilin Province shows a rapid growth trend,and the total amount continues to climb.The total agricultural product has increased from 32.03 billion yuan in 2000 to 123.18 billion yuan in 2020,with an average annual growth rate of 6.97%.However,the extensive development of agricultural ecology;the rapid development of planting and animal husbandry produces a large amount of carbon emissions,and the annual carbon emission shows a trend of rising first and then decreasing.The "inflection point" of carbon emissions in animal husbandry appeared in 2008,earlier than that of planting,but the total carbon emissions of animal husbandry were much higher than that of planting.(2)Dynamic characteristics of agro-ecological-economic interaction in Jilin Province from the perspective of low-carbon economyOn the macro level,the correlation trend between agricultural ecology and agricultural economy in Jilin Province is quite fluctuating,showing an "inverted U type" curve;on the micro level,agricultural ecology is closely related to agricultural economy,the per capita meat output(0.8591)and the per capita grain output(0.7671),and the agricultural economic index are pesticide intensity(0.7843)and agricultural fertilizer intensity(0.7544).(3)spatio-temporal characteristics of the coordinated development level of agricultural ecology-economy in Jilin Province from the perspective of low carbon economyIn the time dimension,the coupling and coordination degree generally showed an upward trend,increasing from 0.3498 in 2000.8791 in 2020,with an increase of 151.32%.The coupling coordination state has evolved from mild disorder level to good coordination level,spanning 6levels;the spatial differentiation feature of coupled coordinated development level is significant and exists for a long time.The coordinated development level of each city(prefecture)shows a stable rising trend,and the unbalanced development phenomenon still exists.In 2020,the coupling coordination degree of all cities(prefectures)is between 0.4127-0.7133,showing the spatial distribution pattern of Changchun City(0.7133)> Jilin City(0.71)> Baicheng City(0.6878)> Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture(0.6822)> Songyuan City(0.6593)> Siping City(0.6445)= Baishan City(0.6445)> Tonghua City(0.6084)> Liaoyuan City(0.5936).(4)Influence factor of the coordinated development of agricultural ecology-economy in Jilin Province from the perspective of low-carbon economyInfluenced by the agricultural and pastoral production activities and environment in different stages of agricultural development,the influencing factors have significant heterogeneity.From the perspective of the explanatory power of impact factors,in 2020,per capita arable land area(0.8888),per capita meat output(0.8517),agricultural labor productivity(0.7609),proportion of fiscal expenditure on agricultural forestry and water affairs(0.6886)and use intensity of agricultural plastics(0.6806)greatly affected the coordinated development level of all cities(prefectures).In conclusion,according to the research conclusion,following the principle of high efficiency and low pollution of agricultural production and the actual situation of Jilin Province,the following suggestions are put forward: combining the regional comparative advantages,promote the role of the agricultural system in self-regulation;improve the guarantee system in various aspects,and coordinate the regional development;and take measures according to local conditions to promote the coordinated development of agriculture.