The Impact Of Population Aging On Carbon Emission

With the trend of global warming becoming more and more obvious,the impact of carbon emissions from fossil energy burning has attracted more and more people’s attention.To cope with the climate change caused by the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases,our country has put forward "accelerating the green transformation of development mode".At present,China’s carbon dioxide emissions have reached about 10 billion tons.How to gradually get rid of the dependence on fossil fuels in the future and achieve the goal of "dual carbon" will be a serious challenge.With the growth of carbon emissions,the Chinese population structure has changed obviously.The improvement in the proportion of the old population indicates that the aging population has become the main feature of the Chinese population structure.In the context of population aging,the labor supply is insufficient,and how to deal with carbon emissions is particularly important.Based on the perspective of consumption and production,this paper analyzes the impact of population aging on carbon emissions from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.In the theoretical analysis,this paper first analyzes the impact mechanism of population aging on carbon emissions based on consumption and production.Secondly,by constructing an intergenerational overlap model including carbon emissions,this paper finds that with the intensification of population aging,carbon emissions will increase.In the empirical analysis,based on the extended Kaya identity,the IDA-PDA two-stage method is used to decompose the per capita carbon emissions.Secondly,the consumption effect,production effect,and their sub-effects are used to construct a panel measurement model for analysis.Through the decomposition of carbon emission factors,it is concluded that the consumption effect is a positive effect to promote the growth of carbon emission,while the production effect is a negative effect to inhibit the growth of carbon emission.According to the panel econometric analysis,the conclusion is drawn: in the level of consumption,population aging will restrain carbon emissions.At the production level,aging populations boost carbon emissions.By further dividing the production level into production efficiency,technology,and factor level,it is found that population aging will promote carbon emission by reducing production efficiency,promoting technological progress,and increasing the proportion of energy use respectively.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper gives the following policy suggestions:(1)Strengthen the publicity of low-carbon consumption awareness.(2)Optimize enterprise personnel structure.(3)Beware of the "rebound effect" of production technology.(4)Improve the quality of the labor force.