The Impact Of China's Aging Population On Carbon Emission Intensit

Demographic factors are increasingly becoming important factors affecting regional carbon emissions,especially the impact of population size and demographic structure on carbon emission intensity is getting more and more attention.China is a large country with a population of 1.4 billion,and since the founding of New China,especially since the reform and opening up,it has created two miracles of rapid economic development and long-term social stability.Behind the rapid economic growth,the demographic factor,especially the demographic dividend,is a major factor that must be considered in the process of actively and steadily promoting China’s goal of carbon neutrality by reaching the carbon peak.At present,with the deepening of population aging,China’s labor supply,consumption structure and family structure will face huge adjustments,and these adjustments will have an important impact on China’s carbon emissions from both production and consumption perspectives.This paper discusses the impact of population aging on China’s carbon emission intensity from the perspective of labor supply and consumption structure,analyzes the effect of each factor on carbon emission intensity and the path of action,and provides suggestions for provinces to actively cope with population aging and promote carbon peak neutral under the goal of "double carbon",as follows:Firstly,the concepts of population aging,carbon emission intensity and labor supply are defined,and based on individual life cycle theory,population transition theory and sustainable development theory,the total effect model of population aging on carbon emission intensity is constructed on the basis of the literature on population aging and carbon emission,and the total effect model is divided into labor supply effect,consumption structure effect and household size effect.The total effect model is divided into labor supply effect,consumption structure effect,and household size effect,and explores the paths of the effect of population aging on carbon emission intensity,and draws the following conclusions:(1)The degree of population aging is significantly and positively correlated with regional carbon emission intensity.For every 1% increase in population aging,carbon emission intensity will increase by 0.153%.(2)Analyzed from the perspective of labor supply,population aging leads to a decrease in labor productivity and labor quality,which increases carbon emission intensity;the decrease in labor participation rate of men and women brought by population aging will reduce carbon emission intensity.(3)Analyzed from the perspective of consumption structure,the deepening of population aging will lead to the reduction of immediate consumption of food and clothing,which will reduce carbon emission intensity.For every 1 unit increase in population aging,food consumption decreases by 0.091 units and carbon emission intensity decreases by 0.039 units;clothing consumption decreases by 0.437 units and carbon emission intensity decreases by 0.059units;housing consumption increases by 0.270 units and carbon emission intensity decreases by0.051 units.(4)From the perspective of household size,population aging brings about an increase in the number of small households(two-person households to four-person households),which increases carbon emission intensity;it brings about an increase in the number of medium-sized households(five-person households to seven-person households),which decreases carbon emission intensity.Finally,four policy recommendations are put forward: first,demographic factors will increasingly become an important factor affecting carbon emissions,and China should do a good job in the future to cope with the integration of population aging and carbon emission reduction;second,vigorously develop the aging industry to promote carbon emission reduction in China while forming new economic growth points;third,enhance the support and recognition of the whole society for the re-employment of the elderly labor force.Fourth,improve the scale efficiency of elderly service supply.