Analysis Of Embodied Coal Consumption In China’s Export Trade And Research On Coal Control Measures

The coal dominated energy structure makes China face increasingly serious energy security concerns and environmental management pressures,so China must control the growth of coal consumption.At present,China’s current policy of controlling coal consumption mainly aims at the production and consumption activities of domestic coal industry.However,with the rapid development of China’s foreign trade,the continuous expansion of export scale plays an increasingly important role in the demand and transfer of implied coal.Therefore,the contribution of implied coal consumption in export trade to China’s coal consumption cannot be ignored.This paper focuses on the study of the implied coal consumption and transfer in China’s foreign export trade and puts forward the corresponding coal control strategies.The conclusions are as follows: first,with the expansion of China’s trade scale,the total growth of implied coal consumption in China’s export trade is obvious,but the growth rate slows down after 2010.The proportion of implied coal consumption in China’s export trade has also increased,mainly in intermediate products.Overall,the decoupling of the implied coal consumption and trade added value in China’s export trade is improving.Second,in terms of industrial structure,the implied coal consumption caused by heavy industry export is dominant,and the proportion of the coal consumption in heavy industry tends to be the export of intermediate products,while light industry is the opposite.The power sector increased significantly during the research period,and the decoupling state was not ideal.The results of structured path analysis show that the main departments of implied coal consumption caused by different stage final demand are the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products,the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products,as well as the supply of metal and power and gas,and the consumption is mainly in the second and third production stages,but the distribution of implied coal gradually moves back in the industrial chain.The hidden coal path and consumption driven by basic metal manufacturing and chemical and chemical products manufacturing increased in the late stage of the study.Third,in terms of country structure,the growth rate of implied coal exported to developed economies is smaller than that of developing economies due to the influence of trade scale.Therefore,the proportion of implied coal consumption exported to developing economies is increasing by nearly 50%.During the study period,the EU became the main developed economy of China’s implied coal export,while the growth rate of implied coal exported to India by China,Brazil and Russia exceeded the overall growth rate.The results of coal trade terms show that China is in a disadvantageous position in most bilateral trade,especially with EU countries.Fourth,the results of structure decomposition show that energy structure has become one of the driving factors to restrain coal consumption after 2006,and its inhibition effect is not obvious.Energy intensity is the main driving force to restrain the increase of implied coal consumption.The export structure effect of intermediate products in production structure effect is the main driving factor to promote the increase of implied coal consumption.The effect of demand structure and demand scale on implicit coal also increases with time.The effect of demand scale affected by export scale is more obvious for the increase of implied coal,and the main driving factor is demand scale in the later stage of the study,among which the promotion effect of investment scale effect is increased obviously.For different industries and exporting countries,the leading factors are different,so it is necessary to formulate coal control strategies for the leading factors of different industries and different economies.Based on the results of the study,the following suggestions are put forward: first,based on the characteristics of implied coal consumption,the implementation of differential coal control strategy.According to the differences of coal consumption and production levels among departments,different coal control strategies are implemented for the departments with low production level in energy consumption processing and intermediate products which have invested more and occupy an important position in the economy.According to the different leading factors of coal consumption caused by trade between China and different economies,the paper puts forward coal control suggestions from the perspective of production structure and consumption scale of intermediate products.Second,take the key industrial path as the grasp,form the industrial coordination mechanism,and promote the coordinated coal control among departments.According to the different functions and functions of different departments in the production chain and the key links in the production chain,the comprehensive management is carried out,and the industrial structure path is extended vertically,and the hidden coal export industry chain is constantly moved backward,while the downstream industries with higher coal content are expanded,so as to ensure the steady development of economy and realize the coal control strategy.Third,adjust consumption mode and optimize the export industrial structure.The key point is to adjust the internal structure of the secondary industry,provide the ultimate products with maximum benefit according to the market demand to realize the effective utilization of coal resources,implement differentiated export tax rebate policies through the export of high carbon products and low-carbon products,and increase investment to encourage the transfer or import of relatively high-consumption coal industry,The purpose of controlling the export scale of high consumption coal industry and guiding the development center of the industry is realized.Fourth,it is an effective way to realize the decoupling of economic development and coal consumption by paying attention to the utilization mode of coal resources,developing circular economy,promoting the efficiency of coal conversion and clean utilization.Fifth,establish a national cooperation mechanism,strengthen industrial cooperation under the background of the increasing potential of complementary trade between China and other trade,explore and build bilateral or multilateral hidden coal trading cooperation mechanism to realize complementary cooperation trade,and realize the goal of China’s coal control through technology sharing.