Study On The Measurement And Effect Decomposition Of Embodied Carbon In Export Trade Of The Yangtze River Economic Belt

The sharp increase of carbon dioxide emissions and global warming have been threatening human production and life,which brings severe challenges to the international community.A variety of countries actively participate in carbon emission reduction actions.At present,China is in the period of the "14th five-year plan",and the "14th five-year plan"is the window period and critical period to achieve the goal of carbon peak.As a significant driving force for China’s national economic development,the problem of carbon emissions from export trade gradually becomes the focus of the whole society.The proportion of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China’s total export trade has gradually increased from 34.70%in 2002 to 48.64%in 2019,and the carbon emission caused by export trade in this region increased from 85.8441 million tons in 2002 to 61.54586 million tons in 2019,with an average annual growth rate of 12.38%,which makes the Yangtze River Economic Belt the main battlefield for the emission reduction of China’s export trade and the development of green trade.Therefore,this article takes the embodied carbon of export trade in this region as the research object,expounds the relevant theories of trade and environment,and then selects the Input-output Analysis and Structural Decomposition Analysis as the research methods by combing the relevant literature on the measurement and effect decomposition methods of the embodied carbon in export trade.Firstly,this paper makes a preliminary statistical analysis on the basic situation of export trade and carbon emission of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.The statistical research shows that:(1)The total export volume of the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows an upward trend,and the export volume and export trade dependence of the lower reaches are much higher than that of the middle and upper reaches;(2)The energy consumption of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is dominated by traditional energy such as coal and oil,and the changes of energy consumption,carbon emission scale and export trade scale in this region converge.Secondly,the input-output model is constructed to calculate the direct and complete carbon emission coefficients of provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the embodied carbon of export trade,and the comparative analysis is carried out from the perspective of region and department.The calculation research shows that:(1)The direct and complete emission coefficients of most departments in the Yangtze River Economic Belt show a downward trend over time,and the average direct and complete carbon emission coefficients in the lower reaches are the lowest,the middle reaches are higher and the upper reaches are the highest;(2)The embodied carbon emissions of export trade in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are gradually increasing,which is basically positively correlated with the export scale.Then,the structural decomposition model is used to decompose the change of embodied carbon in export trade into scale effect,structure effect and technology effect.The analysis is carried out from the three dimensions of total amount,region and sector.The decomposition research shows that:(1)Scale effect is the main factor to promote the growth of embodied carbon in export trade,and the scale effect in lower reaches is the most obvious;(2)The impact of structural effect is relatively small,and there are large differences in different regions and different periods.The adjustment of export commodity structure towards high added value and low energy consumption can make the effect of structure effect change from promotion to inhibition;(3)Technical effect has a significant inhibitory effect,and the inhibitory effect rises with the progress of technology.Finally,based on the above research results,four policy suggestions are put forward.