Research On Dynamic Management And Control Technology Of Risk In Chemical Industry Park

With the continuous development of the petrochemical industry,the construction of chemical parks has become the mainstream trend of the development of the chemical industry.The chemical parks have gathered many chemical companies.The inherent risks of chemical companies are high.In addition,the layout of the companies is close.In the event of leakage,fire,explosion and other accidents,It is very easy to cause a chain effect and cause a catastrophic accident.With the research of domestic and foreign scholars on the safety management of chemical parks,the trend of risk supervision in chemical parks is gradually shifting from post-passive disposal to pre-active prevention.Effective safety risk control measures can prevent accidents from happening.Therefore,this article has carried out a research on the dynamic management and control technology of security risks in chemical parks.Based on the basic concept of dual prevention mechanism,the risks of petrochemical enterprises are divided into three categories: process,equipment,and operations.Different risk analysis methods are used for evaluation.The initial risk is used for hierarchical management and control.The content of hidden hazard investigation and the content of risk hierarchical control are combined to establish a PDCA model for hidden hazard management.Realize closed-loop management of hidden dangers.Based on this,the functional design and realization of the risk management and hidden danger investigation modules in the smart security risk management and control system,to realize the information and data management of risks and hidden dangers;Based on the principle of the protection layer analysis method,the fuzzy Petri net is used to process unstructured data such as risk analysis results for the high-risk points in the risk classification,and the causal link topology of the accident scene is established,and the alarm data and equipment are integrated on this basis Structured data such as fault data and online monitoring data research the parameters involved in the model,including two categories: human error and equipment error.Human errors are divided into on-site operator errors and central control room human errors.Based on the CREAM method combined with the task characteristics of the petrochemical enterprise field operators,a human factor reliability analysis method suitable for field operators is established;Establish the human factor reliability model of the operator in the central control room by statistic alarm data and use APRIORI algorithm to mine the association rules between alarm data and personnel operation data.Equipment failures are divided into mechanical equipment failures and safety instrument failures,and equipment failure data and inspection test cycles are considered respectively to establish a dynamic failure probability calculation model for equipment.Finally,a dynamic quantitative risk assessment method based on multi-source heterogeneous data is established to obtain the real-time probability of accident scenarios and the probability of casualties,providing a basis for park supervision.Finally,take a company in a chemical park as an example,conduct a risk analysis on it,screen out a list of risks that need to be supervised by the park based on the results of the risk analysis,and establish a dynamic quantitative evaluation model for high-risk scenarios.