Research On The Spatial Spillover Effect Of China’s Net Carbon Emission Decoupling

In recent years,the world’s economic development has been accelerating,which led to high carbon emissions.The concept of "carbon neutrality" emerged at the historic moment.Carbon neutrality,also known as zero net carbon emissions,put forward a new perspective to promote green production and reduce ecological burden by carbon compensation.It had been recognized and respected by many countries and organizations.China had made a proposal that carbon neutrality will be achieved before 2060.Under the circumstance of ensuring stable economic growth,it is necessary to explore the decoupling of China’s net carbon emissions and its spatial spillover effects in order to achieve the national carbon neutrality goal from the national perspective.Based on the above background,this article used the data of 30 provinces in Chinese mainland from 2007 to 2018,comparing and analyzing the economic development level and net carbon emission level of each region in different periods.Accordingly,the Tapio decoupling model was combined with Kaya identity and LMDI method to decompose the total net carbon emission decoupling index.The contribution of different decoupling indexes were as well studied.Furthermore,the spatial auto correlation of net emission decoupling index was verified.Following this,comparison was made among the fitting results of the Spatial Error Model and the Spatial Lag Model under different fixed effects.The Spatial Error Model including temporal and spatial fixed effects was finally chosen.The main research results were as follows:(1)China’s net carbon emissions were in a phase of gradual increase from 2007 to 2011,remained basically stable from 2012 to 2014,and began to gradually decline after 2016.There was a relatively obvious downward drift in 2018,showing an overall nice trend.While the economy was increasing,the net carbon emissions was also increasing.In the time series,there roughly was a positive and synchronous trend.The spatial distribution showed a structure of "Eastern>Central>Western".The indicators between different regions showed obvious spatial agglomeration.(2)During the study period,China’s overall net carbon emissions were tending to evolve towards a strong decoupling state,showing a brilliant development trend in general.The spatial distribution differences of net carbon emissions decoupling were obvious,with North China and Northeast China showing strong decoupling effects,while the northwest and southwest regions generally showing a weak decoupling state.The spatial distribution showed a structure of "Eastern>Central>Western".And the net carbon emission decoupling index was relatively different among different provinces,showing obvious spatial gathering feature.(3)China’s net carbon emission decoupling index did show spatial auto correlation.The net carbon emission decoupling between different regions had obvious spatial spillover effects.And the Spatial Error Model under fixed effect of both time and space had the best fitting effect.Based on this,the government may make policy formulations in terms of promoting industrial reform,optimizing the energy structure,expanding carbon sink accumulation,improving carbon sequestration efficiency,and coordinating the layout of carbon neutrality to help achieve carbon neutrality.