Spatial Spillover Effect Of Urbanization On Traffic Carbon Emissions

The rapid promotion of urbanization has promoted the rapid development of national economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards.At the same time,it has also led to the continuous improvement of energy consumption demand,resulting in a large number of carbon emissions.The large energy consumption of transportation industry is one of the main sources of increasing carbon emissions in the whole society.Facing the increasingly severe situation of carbon emission,how to reduce traffic carbon emission in the process of urbanization has become a common concern of the whole society.In the past,the common panel data model was used to investigate the impact of urbanization on traffic carbon emissions.However,each region in China is connected and influenced each other in geographical space,and the level of urbanization in each region is also different,which leads to the difference in the spatial distribution of traffic carbon emissions in China.Therefore,the future research needs to pay attention to the role of spatial factors.Based on the above analysis,this paper decided to analyze the impact of urbanization on traffic carbon emissions from the perspective of spatial spillover in order to provide reference for the realization of the new urbanization target in China.Based on the review of domestic and foreign literature and relevant theories,this paper puts forward the mechanism of urbanization on the spatial spillover effect of traffic carbon emissions,and uses the "top-down" method to measure the traffic carbon emissions of 30 provinces(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in 2007-2017.It is recognized that in general,China's traffic carbon emissions are increasing year by year,showing a high East-West low,high coastal high spatial distribution Inland trend.Secondly,based on the STIRPAT model,this paper establishes a spatial panel Doberman model,and demonstrates that there is a significant spatial spillover and urbanization of traffic carbon emissions,which will significantly increase the traffic carbon emissions in adjacent areas.Finally,according to the empirical results,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.This is helpful to understand the key points of reducing traffic carbon emissions in the future urbanization development process,and avoid stepping into the path of high carbon development again.Based on the above research,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)urbanization will increase traffic carbon emissions.(2)Due to economic,geographical and other factors,traffic carbon emission itself has a positive spatial correlation.(3)Local urbanization will increase the carbon emission of transportation in neighboring areas.(4)There are regional differences in spatial spillover effects of urbanization on traffic carbon emissions.The influence of high urbanization level areas on traffic carbon emissions is lower than that of low urbanization level areas.In terms of indirect effect,the central region has the largest indirect effect.The possible innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)the estimation coefficient of the impact of urbanization on traffic carbon emissions is revised.(2)Based on the empirical analysis,the paper puts forward the spillover effect path of urbanization on traffic carbon emission in China.The results of this study provide a reference for reducing the carbon emission of transportation in the process of urbanization and promoting sustainable development of transportation.