Research On Carbon Quota Allocation Based On Carbon Peak In 2030

In 2021,the establishment of the unified carbon trading market in our country marked that the tradable carbon quota system has moved from pilot to comprehensive promotion.Although the realization of the "double carbon" goal can be guaranteed through the comprehensive tradable carbon quota system,the realization way is completely different,one is "hard landing" and the other is "soft landing".For the purpose of ensuring the realization of the "double carbon" goal under the premise of stable economic operation,the determination and allocation of total carbon quota under the comprehensive tradable carbon quota system has been the key.In terms of the determination and allocation of scientific and effective total carbon quota,it is necessary to be carried out based on reality.While the reality basis lies in a scientific and accurate prediction of carbon emission and carbon absorption.On the basis of the systematically combing the relevant research literature,according to the investigation on the historical data of carbon emission and carbon absorption in China,the econometric methods are used to fit the continuous carbon emission curve and carbon absorption curve respectively in this thesis.Through the combination with the two nodes in 2030 and 2060,in line with the features that the corresponding maximum value of carbon peak and the corresponding carbon emission of carbon neutralization are equal to the carbon absorption,it carries out the smooth extension of carbon emission curve and carbon absorption curve.On the basis of analyzing the operation status and characteristics of the extended carbon emission curve and carbon absorption curve,the carbon emission and carbon absorption prediction model based on the "double carbon" goal is explored respectively.Besides,the annual carbon emission and carbon absorption of China before 2060 are predicted.By taking this as the premise,the allocation scheme of carbon quota is further discussed according to different principles.After comparative analysis,the optimal scheme suitable for China’s national conditions is proposed in this thesis.According to the research results,it indicates that:(1)The actual carbon emission curve and carbon absorption curve in our country have nonlinear characteristics;(2)The carbon emission and carbon absorption prediction models based on "double carbon" target in our country are suitable for nonlinear regression and time series prediction models respectively.Through selection,the carbon emission and carbon absorption prediction models are STIRPAT model and GM(1,1)model respectively;(3)The predicted peak value of carbon emission in our country is 10.6 billion t in 2025,and the predicted value of carbon neutralization in 2060 is 3.7 billion t;(4)The principle of equity based on output level is suitable for China’s carbon quota allocation by combining with the strategic transformation of China’s economy to a green and low-carbon model.