Research On China’s Carbon Emission Quota Allocation Model Under Carbon Peaking And Carbon Neutrality Goals

The carbon emissions trading mechanism is recognized as an effective marketbased tool to address climate change.The scientific and reasonable allocation of carbon emission rights is the premise and foundation for the effective operation of the carbon emission trading mechanism and is of great significance to the orderly achievement of China’s "double carbon target" and the sustainable development of the regional economy.Therefore,this paper takes "carbon emission rights allocation" as the core topic,summarises the practical experience and shortcomings of carbon trading and quota allocation,constructs a model for inter-provincial carbon emission rights allocation,and conducts provincial quota allocation and emission reduction pressure assessment for each province based on the total number of quotas set,with the main research contents as follows:Firstly,analysis of carbon trading practices and the allocation of allowances.The model of carbon emission rights allocation in the European Union and the United States of California is discussed in detail in terms of the total amount set,the allocation method and scope,and the implications for China.Based on the pilot construction process of China’s carbon trading market,the method of quota allocation and its operation are analyzed.A comparative analysis of the existing allocation methods is made from the perspectives of both advantages and disadvantages.Practical experience is provided for the construction of a new allocation model.Secondly,total carbon allowance setting in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutral targets.Stage national carbon quota total setting based on the theoretical model of quota total setting.Collect and calculate historical carbon emission intensity data from each province,apply learning curve theory to construct a three-factor carbon emission intensity curve model and fit to predict future carbon emission intensity.According to national policy documents,development scenarios were reasonably set and the total amount of allowances was set during the allocation period.After empirical analysis,it was determined that the set enhanced emission reduction scenario is consistent with the existing national emission reduction target,and carbon emissions under this scenario peak in 2029.The peak is 12,994 million tonnes,and the results provide the aggregate constraint for later allocation.Thirdly,inter-provincial carbon emission rights allocation.A fairness interval is set by fully considering development guarantee,individual equality and basic needs,and then a model of allocation satisfaction is constructed,with the highest level of allocation satisfaction in that year as the inner optimization objective;the energy shadow price theory is applied to calculate carbon emission reduction costs,with the lowest carbon reduction cost in the allocation period as the outer optimization objective,and a two-layer planning model is constructed.Using 2020 as the base year and data from 30 provinces as the basis,the empirical analysis is carried out to obtain the phased provincial carbon quotas that satisfy the total constraint and comply with the principle of fairness and efficiency,providing a model reference for the provincial carbon quota allocation.Fourthly,Evaluation of provincial carbon emission reduction potential and the adaptability of allocation results.Constructing an accounting framework for emission reduction potential.The learning curve theory was applied to fit the energy intensity prediction,and the grey prediction model was used to study the future primary energy consumption of each province,and the emission reduction potential of each province was estimated.Combining the quota allocation results with the estimated emission reduction potential results,the regional carbon emission reduction pressure was analyzed.After analysis,the emission reduction potential of each province is compatible with the allocation results,the allocation results are reasonable,and the evaluation results provide a reference for the formulation and adjustment of emission reduction policies of each province.