Research On The Economic Growth Effect Of Tradable Carbon Quota Constraints In China

From the perspective of welfare economics,the carbon quota system based on carbon trading is an institutional arrangement that privatizes social costs.This institutional arrangement obviously changes the cost function of microeconomic agents.changes in the cost function of microeconomic agents will inevitably lead to changes in their behavioral choices,thus affecting the dynamics of the national economy.Combined with the implementation of China’s carbon quota system based on carbon trading,on the basis of discussing the behavior choice of microeconomic subjects,this paper examines the impact of carbon trading on the operation of the national economy from the perspective of economic growth,so as to provide a basic basis for China’s economic transformation to a green and low-carbon strategy.Based on the systematic combing of relevant research literature,this paper discusses the impact of tradable carbon quota constraints on economic growth based on the operation mechanism of carbon trading market and the behavior choice of microeconomic subjects.On this premise,according to the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory,through the investigation of the behavior equations of the three economic subjects of family department,enterprise department and government department,this paper constructs a DSGE model including carbon trading price.Secondly,based on the existing research results and the actual situation of China,the parameters of the model are calibrated and Bayesian estimated,Finally,the DSGE model is constructed to simulate the pulse effect diagram of carbon trading price,energy price and production technology progress on economic growth,and finally some valuable conclusions are obtained.The results show that:(1)the implementation of carbon quota system based on carbon trading will have a certain impact on economic growth in the short term,mainly due to the increase of marginal cost of production and operation of enterprises;In the long run,the impact on economic growth is not obvious,but it has a significant positive effect on the transformation of economic growth mode to green and low-carbon,mainly due to the technological innovation driven by cost pressure in the process of enterprise production and operation.(2)The impact of energy price mainly affects the production cost of enterprises,which further affects economic growth.(3)Carbon trading price is an important variable affecting the short-term and long-term effects of economic growth.On the one hand,the rise of carbon trading price increases the short-term impact of economic growth,on the other hand,it accelerates the transformation and upgrading of economic growth mode.