Influence Of Carbon Tax Policy On Economic Fluctuation Based On DSGE Model

In recent years,with the rapid development of economy and the increasing standards of citizens,our country has made many sacrifices in terms of environmental quality.As a result,China is facing major challenges in finding ways to address the oversight of carbon emissions and environmental governance supervision.Relying only on market forces to promote enterprises’ production and management mode transformation of cannot fundamentally achieve carbon neutrality targets.The government is also required to implement relevant environmental regulations to reduce corporate carbon emission.As a new type of tax proposed to curb excessive carbon emissions,carbon tax has shown irreplaceable value.However,there is a certain trade-off between the levy of carbon taxes and economic growth.When environmental problems need to be addressed urgently under a stable macro-economy environment,the balance between the two becomes very important.First of all,this article sorts out the ways and transmission mechanisms of carbon tax policies that affect economic fluctuations,and constructs DSGE(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium)model that includes carbon tax policies.The tax policy is included in the same framework to study the dynamic effects of carbon tax policy impact,clean manufacturer technology impact,polluting manufacturer technology impact,and environmental protection technology impact on macroeconomic fluctuations and environmental quality.Secondly,Secondly,the parameters of DSGE model are calibrated and Bayesian estimated,and the impact of carbon tax policy on economic fluctuations is numerically simulated.According to the results of the impulse response analysis,it is concluded that the above four shocks can achieve a "win-win" between the improvement of social output and the improvement of environmental quality.The results show that firms’ technology shock has an inhibitory effect on the output of firms except themselves,and the promotion effect of pollution firms’ technology shock on the output of pollution firms is greater than that of clean firms’ technology shock on the output of clean firms.The response of investment to the four shocks is greater than that of consumption,which indicates that investment is the main transmission channel of China’s economic fluctuation.Finally,on the basis of the simulation results,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to deal with the negative effect of carbon tax policy,which can provide decision-making reference for China’s efforts to achieve the "win-win" goal of carbon emission reduction and stable economic fluctuations.