| In order to actively respond to climate change,China proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,and promotes the transition from ‘double control’ of energy consumption to ‘double control’ of total carbon emissions and intensity.In the process of addressing climate change,China attaches great importance to international cooperation,especially cooperation with the Belt and Road Initiative countries.Promoting the green ‘Belt and Road’ construction through close economic and trade exchanges is an important practical platform for building a community with a shared future for mankind.In this context,it is of great significance to study the emission reduction effect of China’s direct investment on the carbon total and intensity of the Belt and Road Initiative countries.This paper firstly summarized the relevant theoretical basis on the basis of sorting out the existing research and analyzed China’s direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative countries.Secondly,it analyzed China’s direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative countries and its carbon emission status from 2003 to 2017.Furthermore,econometric models were constructed to conduct an empirical analysis on the carbon emission reduction effect of China’s direct investment in terms of total carbon and intensity,such as individual fixed effects,panel quantiles,and chained multiple mediation effects.Finally,conclusions were drawn and corresponding policy recommendations were put forward.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)China’s direct investment,which is increasing year by year,had produced significant emission reduction effects on the total carbon emissions of the Belt and Road Initiative countries.For every 1% increase in China’s direct investment in its direct investment,carbon emissions in low-quantile countries could decrease by 0.05%,while carbon emissions in high-quantile countries could decrease by only 0.01%.The reason is that the total carbon emissions of low-quantile countries are small,while the total carbon emissions of high-quantile countries are relatively large.The ratio of the total carbon emission reduction of the same unit of direct investment to the total carbon emission of the low quantile countries is larger in the higher quantile countries.(2)Further grouping results showed that China’s direct investment in both highincome and low-income the Belt and Road Initiative countries contributes to their total carbon emission reduction,and the impact on the high-income group was slightly greater than that of the low-income group.The reason is that compared with lowincome countries,high-income countries have more abundant capital,advanced technology and high-quality labor,and have stricter requirements for foreign investment in environmental protection.Therefore,the carbon emission reduction effect of accepting foreign direct investment is more significant.(3)While promoting the carbon emission reduction of the Belt and Road Initiative countries,China’s direct investment had also played a significant role in promoting its economic growth.The results of the analysis using the multiple mediation effect model showed that in the countries in the gradient group,the chain transmission mechanism of ‘China’s direct investment → capital accumulation → technological progress →economic growth’ mainly worked.Countries in the inverse gradient group worked mainly through the chain transmission mechanism of ‘China’s direct investment →technological progress → industrial structure upgrading → economic growth’.(4)The carbon intensity index could comprehensively reflect the total amount of carbon and the economy.Further using the panel individual fixed effect model,empirical analysis showed that for every 1% increase in China’s direct investment,the carbon emission intensity of the "Belt and Road" countries decreases by 0.121%.Moreover,whether grouped by income level or investment gradient,carbon-intensive emission reduction effects were produced in different types of countries. |
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