The Impact Of International Oil Prices On China's Macro Economy

After the completion of the industrial revolution in the 1840 s,bulk energy gradually became an essential resource in life and oil resources gradually developed into an important pillar of macroeconomic development.The economy of the world became rely on oil,so the fluctuations in oil prices affected all countries extremely.When discussing the relationship between Chinese economic growth and inflation and international oil prices,we found that the rise in international oil prices from 2011 Q4-2016 Q2 occurred at the same time as the decline in the economic growth rate.However,with the decline of oil price not accompanied by the increase of economic growth rate in the same period,the particularity between different periods of time was discussed,and the effect of oil price shocks on China’s economic growth at different times was predicted and analyzed.Based on the theoretical study of the influence mechanism and transmission pathways of international oil prices on the Chinese economy,this paper uses the quarterly data of international oil prices and macroeconomics from 2000 Q1-2018 Q4.The SVAR was constructed and the influence of oil impact was studied by historical decomposition and prediction scenario simulation.In this paper,several different analytical tools are compared,and it is concluded that pulse response and variance decomposition can not replace historical decomposition and anti-fact simulation to explain economic phenomena.The results of pulse response analysis show that the impact of international crude oil price increase on rgdp is significant,and there is hysteresis.Rcpi was affected by the sudden rise of dlnoilp,and the results were not as significant as expected.Historical decomposition results show that the cumulative effect of the impact of oil prices on GDP during the period of 2011 Q4-2016 Q2 has a relatively low degree of importance,and the cumulative effect of inflation shocks has the smallest impact on GDP.The cumulative effect of structural shocks on CPI during the 2011 Q4-2016 Q2 period,and the cumulative effect of oil price shocks on inflation during this period is positive and accounts for the largest proportion,while the impact of economic growth on inflation is negative.The cumulative effect is second only to the impact of oil price shocks on inflation.In the scenario forecast after 2014 Q3,the unit is under the impact of oil price.The predicted value is mostly above the true observation value during the predicted sample period.The positive oil price shock has a smaller positive impact on CPI growth.The negative impact of unit negative oil price on CPI is significant.Based on the conclusion of the empirical analysis,the paper suggests that China should promote the development and innovation of low-carbon new technologies to reduce China’s demand for crude oil imports;Actively participate in international crude oil pricing,so that our country has a more say in pricing,actively participate in international oil trading,to ensure that the domestic oil and its derivatives prices can maintain stability.