Research On Airline Flight Safety Risk Management Based On WSR Methodology

With the rapid growth of our economy,the total turnover of civil aviation transportation is increasing rapidly,meanwhile,the problem of flight safety is increasing.As the main undertaker of civil aviation transportation,airlines need to carry out flight safety risk management to ensure flight safety.Therefore,by collecting the data of Chinese flight accidents and accident symptoms from 2011 to 2020,the types and main causes of these accidents are analyzed,and then an evaluation index system is established from the three perspectives of "physical","operational" and "human".Based on fuzzy match-element model and weighted Markov chain model,the flight safety risk management of airlines is studied.It provides some theoretical reference for improving the safety management system of airlines.The research content of this paper mainly includes three aspects:(1)Based on the analysis of relevant concepts of flight safety risk management of airlines,based on the principle of index selection and combined with the physical-management-human methodology,the factors affecting flight safety risk of airlines are divided into three parts:physical factors,management factors and human factors,and the evaluation index system of flight safety risk of airlines is constructed.On the basis of understanding a variety of weighting methods,due to the limitations of single weighting method,the game theory aiming at Nash equilibrium is used to combine subjective weights and objective weights to make up for the limitations of single weighting,and finally the weight of airline flight safety risk assessment index is obtained.(2)On the basis of in-depth study of relevant evaluation models,the fuzzy theory which can effectively solve the ambiguity in the evaluation process and the matter-element theory which can solve the incompatibility of evaluation indicators are selected to carry out the evaluation of airline flight safety risks,which is conducive to improving the scientific rationality of the evaluation results.Combined with the actual situation of airline flight safety risk,a fuzzy matter-element based airline flight safety risk assessment model was constructed,and combined with the actual situation of airlines to verify the effectiveness of the model.Through the analysis of the evaluation results,the main factors affecting the flight safety risk of airlines are obtained.(3)The evaluation model is used to evaluate the flight safety risk status of airlines in the past,and the evaluated data is substituted into the weighted Markov chain model to predict the flight safety risk status of airlines in the future.The full text is summarized and the risk control suggestions to improve the flight safety of airlines are put forward.