Research On Technology Of Risk Management For Airline Flight Safety

Ensuring the continued safety of flight is the basis for realizing the strategy of strengthening China’s civil aviation.The main measure of Safety Management System(SMS)was constructed by airlines,which is used to achieve security goal of safety and health,but in the construction of SMS risk management is an essential part.Risk management is a complicated system engineering,which is emphasizes on accident prevention and control of the former,so as to further improve the flight safety management level of airlines,this paper mainly introduces three progressive processes of risk source identification,risk assessment and risk control in flight safety risk management.In terms of risk source identification,risk factors affecting flight safety are analyzed in terms of the crew of artificial,flight environment,equipment,management four aspects from the perspective of MMEM system theory.Based on the statistical analysis results of flight accidents and flight accidental signs in the last ten years,the influence factors were selected and sorted to form the flight safety risk assessment index system for airlines.In the aspect of risk assessment,taking into account the uncertainties that affect many factors of flight safety,this paper establishes the evaluation model using the matter element theory,evidence theory and the evidence-matter element theory respectively to carry out the quantitative assessment of flight safety risk.The example verification analysis shows that the feasibility and effectiveness of the methods used.In terms of risk control,Kalman filter algorithm is used in combination with the above risk assessment results to predict and analyze the flight safety system safety situation.The development trend of the flight safety system safety situation in a short period of time is obtained and an example verification simulation carried out.Combined with the index system of flight safety risk assessment obtained from risk identification,the flight safety status and main factors affecting flight safety obtained from risk assessment,and the forecast results of flight safety situation from risk control,the measures to reduce the occurrence of flight accidents and flight accidents are put forward.Comprehensive the above analysis results show that the model can be built in this paper for the airline flight safety management to provide a feasible scheme,but also has referencing value for construction of SMS to airlines.