Analysis Of Spatiotemporal Differentiation And Driving Factors Of Agricultural Ecological Efficiency In The Yellow River Basin

The nine provinces of the Yellow River Basin,with their abundant agricultural resources,mild climate and superior geographical location,are important grain production bases in China,holding the jobs of 1.4 billion people in China and an important part of ensuring food security.According to the survey data,the nine provinces have a serious dependence on the development of agricultural production,both in terms of natural resources and in the use of chemical products such as fertilizers and pesticides,which has also caused serious resource shortages and increasingly frequent product quality and safety problems.The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period for economic development,and it is also true for agricultural production,and it is extremely crucial for the nine provinces to grasp the development opportunities during this period and make timely adjustments to their respective agricultural production structures,so as to develop into modern agricultural powerhouses.Considering these,under the guidance of relevant theories and research results,this paper systematically analyzes the data of agricultural development in the nine provinces over the years,establishes a large-scale and objective evaluation index system that can measure the current agricultural ecological efficiency with the help of scientific and technological means,and then accurately measures the agricultural ecological efficiency values achieved by the nine provinces through the SBM model,and finally explores and analyzes the differences in agricultural ecological efficiency of the nine provinces according to the Tobit model.At the same time,corresponding development suggestions and policy suggestions are given accordingly.Finally,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The agricultural ecological efficiency of the nine provinces as a whole shows a state of fluctuation and decline.In the 10 years from 2010 to 2019,the average efficiency of the whole basin was 0.769,which was at the upper middle level,and the overall fluctuation showed a downward trend.Redundancy of inputs and undesired outputs is the main reason for the loss of agricultural ecological efficiency in the Yellow River Basin,and the inefficiency caused by input redundancy is much higher than that caused by undesired output redundancy.This value has been low for a long time,indicating that there have been agricultural ecological and environmental problems in the Yellow River Basin that cannot be ignored,and also indicates that this situation has not been controlled.(2)The spatial correlation of agricultural ecological efficiency is not strong.Agroecological efficiency showed global positive correlation and local agglomeration characteristics.From the overall point of view,except for 2010,2012 and 2013,the agricultural ecological efficiency of other years has passed the significance test,the agricultural ecological efficiency of the Yellow River Basin shows a positive spatial correlation characteristics,local spatial agglomeration is mainly high-high agglomeration and low-low spatial agglomeration,and the number of low-low agglomeration provinces is decreasing.(3)The role of various factors in the process of agricultural production is different,resulting in different degrees of influence in agricultural ecological efficiency.In this paper,it is finally found that factors such as agricultural scale and fiscal support in terms of policies can effectively improve agricultural ecological efficiency,while factors such as mechanization level can inhibit agricultural production efficiency to a certain extent.