| In recent years,a series of environmental degradation events not only caused huge economic losses,but also seriously threatened the safety of human existence.Studies have shown that unsustainable modes of production and life are the main culprits of environmental degradation.Effective improvement of the environment requires full play of the coordinated role of production and consumption.Therefore,under the background of advocating in-depth green life creation activities and the goal of "carbon neutrality",it is of great practical significance to study how to restrain the unsustainable behavior and living habits of the public and promote the greening of public behavior and life style.More than previous studies focused on the behavior of public green drive mechanism analysis,the research content of type too many influence factors,combining with the reality of public green behavior of actual performance,the evident deviation between "consciousness and behavior",shows that has not been effective to identify the key factors affecting the behavior of public green,Exploring new directions and means has become the future trend of public green behavior research.This article obtains from the public behavior,constructs the public green behavior level measurement index system,in accordance with the order of the layer to the provinces,regions,the paper studies the behavior of public green degrees on the national level to study the status quo of implementation of public green behavior,explore the public green behavior degree the cause of the difference of the level of performance in order to effective guide targeted measures are put forward.The research content of this paper is as follows:(1)Construct an indicator system for measuring the level of public green behavior.By referring to relevant literature and materials,a comprehensive index database is established to understand common indicators for measuring public green behavior.Combined with expert advice,a comprehensive measurement index system of public green behavior level including economic,social,environmental,resource and emotional aspects is constructed.(2)To evaluate and analyze the level of public green behavior degree.Firstly,the collected index data are standardized and the combined weighting method is adopted to determine the weight value of each index.Then,according to the empowerment results,the level of public green behavior in 24 provinces and 8 regions is measured and analyzed from the five subsystems of economy,society,environment,resources and emotion.Then,on the basis of subsystem analysis,comprehensive analysis and grade division are carried out according to provincial,regional and national hierarchical logic.Finally,according to the order of three-level indicators,two-level indicators and first-level indicators,the obstacle degree factor analysis is carried out to understand the specific factors hindering the development of public green behavior level from the micro level.(3)Conduct predictive analysis on the level of public green behavior.Firstly,on the basis of the above analysis,the data of the level of public green behavior from 2006 to 2020 are calculated and analyzed for the evolution characteristics to understand the development law of the level of public green behavior.Then,the GM(1,1)grey prediction model is constructed to predict and analyze the level of public green behavior from 2021 to 2030,and understand the development trend of public green behavior in the future.Finally,scenario prediction is carried out based on extreme learning machine model in order to make the development trend of public green behavior level more consistent with reality.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)There are objective differences between subsystems in the level of public green behavior in different regions.In terms of economy and society,the economically developed areas such as eastern,northern and southern coastal areas perform better,showing a state of basically synchronous economic level and social progress,providing a solid material basis and social conditions for the public to implement green behavior.In terms of environment,the ecologically fragile areas in southwest and northwest China perform better,providing a good living environment for the public.In terms of resources,the northwest region rich in natural resources and the northern coastal region rich in human resources performed better.In terms of emotion,the southern and northern coastal areas scored higher,showing a state of harmony between economic level and environmental literacy.(2)There is a significant difference in the comprehensive level of public green behavior degree,showing a block distribution.From the perspective of provinces,provinces with high degree of public green behavior can be divided into two categories.One is provinces with high level of economic development and good social foundation,such as Beijing,Shanghai and Guangdong province.Second,provinces with rich natural resource reserves and sound environmental conditions,such as Qinghai and Shaanxi.From the regional point of view,the comprehensive score of coastal areas is the highest,much higher than that of inland areas,indicating that economic level is an important factor affecting public participation in environmental construction.At the national level,China has not yet formed a good ecological pattern of full participation.The public’s emotional performance is good,but the performance of actual participation is not satisfactory,and there is an obvious problem of "consciousness and behavior" inconsistency.Combined with the factor analysis results of obstacle degree,it is found that environment,resources and emotion are the main factors affecting the level of public green behavior.(3)On the whole,the level of public green behavior in China shows an increasing trend and will continue to increase in the future.By 2035,a good pattern of green behavior and green life will be basically realized.According to the time evolution analysis results,although the level of public green behavior in China has decreased in some years,but the decrease is small,the overall volatility is not big,and the overall trend is still steadily rising.According to grey forecasting analysis,according to the results of our country’s public green behavior degree level for a period of time remained stable growth in the future,the future development of the overall positive,which presents downtrend environment subsystem forecast,show to the public in the aspect of environmental behavior reasonable constraints,and guide the management become the important measures to enhance the level of greening public behavior;According to the scenario prediction analysis results,the curve trend characteristics of the nine development modes are similar,that is,the curve trend from 2021 to 2035 basically keeps decreasing first and then increasing,and the curve trend from 2035 to 2050 is gradually rising and tends to be stable at a high level.According to the prediction results,effective control of population and reduction of carbon dioxide emissions are the key measures to improve the level of green behavior of the public in China.Combined with the research conclusion and reality,this paper puts forward suggestions and measures to guide and promote public green behavior from the aspects of economy,society,environment,resources and emotion.There are 36 pictures,40 tables and 207 references in this paper. |
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