| Rapid economic development has caused increasingly serious environmental problems recently.Since 2022,the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have successively issued relevant policies and other plans to promote energy conservation and emission reduction.At the same time,with the increase of consumers’ low-carbon preference,emission reduction has been paid more and more attention by enterprises.Many enterprises have adopted carbon emission reduction strategies to help achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.However,in reality,sudden changes in online public opinion,consumers’ psychological preferences and consumption trends may lead to drastic changes in demand for specific products or services.The risk has been widely recognized by scholars and defined as demand disruption.The demand disruption will indirectly affect the carbon emissions of the supply chain,and may make the initial production plan and emission reduction strategy uncontrollable.Fortunately,the rapidly developing data-driven marketing technology in recent years can help businesses describe,predict,and analyze consumer behavior and the reasons for demand interruptions,effectively assisting in demand interruption management.Consequently,this paper analyzes the supply chain emission reduction strategy in the case of demand disruption in combination with consumer’s low-carbon preference,carbon tax policy and data-driven marketing.This paper focuses on the following two aspects:(1)Based on the realistic background of sharp increase or decrease in sales under demand disruption,the paper constructed supply chain carbon reduction models considering consumers’ low-carbon preference(basic model)and the supply chain carbon reduction models considering supply chain member cooperation(extended model).The Stackelberg game is used to optimize the model,and the optimal pricing and emission reduction decisions of supply chain members are obtained.Then,through numerical simulation,the relationship between decision variables and profit with parameters is analyzed.(2)Based on the sharp increase and decrease in sales under the influence of demand disruption,DDM is introduced to optimize and assist in managing the demand disruption.The paper builds a supply chain carbon emission reduction strategy model that takes into account consumers’ low-carbon preferences and data-driven marketing under demand disruption.With the goal of maximizing profits,the paper optimized the optimal emission reduction strategies and profits of supply chain members by Stackelberg game theory in different situations.Through numerical simulation,the optimal pricing,emission reduction,data-driven marketing strategy and profit are analyzed,and the influence of relevant parameters on the optimal solution is discussed.At the same time,the simulation results under different circumstances are compared to draw relevant conclusions and give management inspiration.Based on the analysis of this paper,it can be concluded that when the intensity of demand disruption is low,the optimal emission reduction level of the manufacturer has certain robustness.Higher DDM efficiency and consumer low-carbon preferences have a promoting effect on the manufacturer’s emission reduction levels.The manufacturer’s emission reduction strategies are influenced by many factors.When the degree of demand disruption,consumer low-carbon preferences,and carbon tax rates exceed their respective thresholds,the manufacturer can achieve higher profits under emission reduction conditions.When the manufacturer adopts emission reduction strategies,the retailer engages in free-riding behavior.A sudden decrease in demand will cause the manufacturer to lower the emission reduction level.Cost-sharing and centralized decision-making models can effectively coordinate the supply chain when demand disruption occurs.The retailer’s profits will show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing as the cost-sharing ratio increases. |
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