Study On The Value And Prediction Of Ecosystem Services In Ningxia Based On Land Use Cover Change

Since the 2000 s,the spatial structure and service functions of land use have been affected by human activities due to the rapid progress of society in China,which can have an impact on the ecological effects.Therefore,there is a need for in-depth research on land use change and Ecosystem Service Value(ESV)and its impacts,while modelling and forecasting future land use change and ESV is an early warning for its rational planning,which is important for the balanced development of ecology and economy.The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is a key ecological protection zone,and the study of land use change and its impact on ESV is representative and typical of the relationship between people and land in the region.Based on the land use data of Ningxia in 2000 and 2020,this study firstly explored its spatial and temporal land use change characteristics from 2000 to 2020 by using the model methods of land use transfer matrix,dynamic attitude,standard deviation ellipse and center of gravity migration;secondly,the ESV equivalent factor table of Ningxia was revised according to the actual situation of the study area by reconsidering the inclusion of the construction land factor,and the Ningxia ESV dynamic assessment model was established,and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of its ESV from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed by calculation;again,the impact of land use change on ESV was explored by using ESV variance contribution rate,correlation analysis,land-ecological coordination and driving force analysis;finally,based on Geo SOS for ArcGIS,Logistic-CA,Decision-tree CA and ANN-CA were used to verify the accuracy of LUCC simulations,and then the model with the best simulation effect,ANN-CA,was selected to simulate the spatial and temporal land use change pattern in2035 in Ningxia,and then the spatial and temporal evolution trend of ESV was predicted.The main research findings are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the dynamic attitude of arable land and water area in Ningxia is0.03% and 0.98%,and the largest is construction land at 10.14%;the smaller changes in dynamic attitude are forest land,grassland and unused land,at-0.03%,-0.34% and-0.24%respectively.The main land types in Ningxia are arable land and grassland,the proportions of which are not very different and cover almost the entire region.(2)Land use change led to an overall decrease of 1,833.26 million yuan in ESV flow in Ningxia;the contribution of support function and cultural function to ESV remained unchanged,accounting for 23% and 4% respectively,of which the conversion of supply function to regulating function was 3%;the value size according to the first level type of service function was regulating function > support function > supply function > cultural function,and according to the second level type was hydrological regulation > The second level is hydrological regulation > climate regulation > soil conservation > gas regulation >maintaining biodiversity > purifying the environment > food production > raw material production > providing aesthetic landscapes > maintaining nutrient cycles > water supply;in2000,the higher ESV areas for food production and the lower ESV areas for climate regulation both accounted for more than 60% of the area of Ningxia,and the lower ESV areas for raw material production,purifying the environment and hydrological conditions were mainly concentrated in Shizuishan and north-central part of Yinchuan City,and the low value areas for water supply,gas regulation,soil conservation,maintaining nutrient cycles,maintaining biodiversity and providing aesthetic landscapes ESV are mainly located in Shizuishan City,north-central part of Yinchuan City and north-western part of Wuzhong City,and the high value areas are all in southern part of Yinchuan City and central and northeastern part of Wuzhong City;by 2020 the higher value areas for water supply ESV are concentrated in Shizuishan City,Yinchuan City,North and south of Zhongwei City,north and south of Wuzhong City and Guyuan City,the low value hydrological regulation ESV area accounts for more than half of Ningxia,and the remaining individual low value ESV areas are mainly located in Shizuishan City and north-central Yinchuan City.(3)The degree of influence of different land use types on ESV is mainly related to the value of services of a particular land use type at the beginning and end of the study.There is a high correlation between the area factor of each land use type and the corresponding change in the amount of ecosystem service value in Ningxia from 2000 to 2020.Land use change and ESV are at a low conflict stage,with land conversion having a negative effect on the ecological environment and inconsistent land-ecological development.From the perspective of driving force analysis,the higher the population density,urbanisation rate,GDP and GDP per capita,the lower their ESV;land use and ESV changes in Ningxia are closely related to policies.(4)By 2035,the largest rate of change is in forest land with 20.20%,both cropland and grassland are in a decreasing trend with a rate of change of-12.94% and-5.68% respectively,and there is an increasing trend in watershed,construction land and unused land with a rate of change of 9.60%,11.92% and 8.52 respectively;more than half of the forest land covers the area where grassland is located,the area of unused land has a significant From 2020 to 2035,the largest increase in ESV is in forest land,from $3.164 billion in 2020 to $45.684 billion in2035,which is related to the huge increase in the area of forest land;total ESV shows an upward trend,with a total increase of $26.703 billion;hydrological regulation and climate regulation have the most significant increase The low value areas for food production,raw material production,gas regulation,soil conservation and maintenance of nutrient cycles ESV in 2035 are mainly located around the northern part of Ningxia,the higher value areas for water supply ESV account for more than 70% of the area of Ningxia,climate regulation,maintenance of biodiversity and provision of aesthetic landscape ESV The high ESV areas are mainly located at the junction of Shizuishan City and Yinchuan City,the south of Yinchuan City,the central and northeastern part of Wuzhong City and the south of Guyuan City,the high ESV areas for environmental purification are mainly located at the junction of Shizuishan City and Yinchuan City,the central and northern part of Yinchuan City,and the low ESV areas for hydrological regulation are mainly located in the central and southern part of Ningxia and account for more than 40% of the area.