Empirical Research On Influencing Factors And Volatility Of Carbon Emission Price In China

Environmental pollution caused by global temperature warming has become a hot issue that cannot be ignored.China,as the world’s largest energy producer and consumer,is duty-bound to maintain low and stable carbon emissions.Especially after putting forward the "double carbon target",China’s green development has risen to a new height and become one of the main tones of China’s social and economic development in the future.However,since our national carbon emission trading market system is still in primary stage,the price of carbon emission right is high volatility and the pricing mechanism is not perfect,which has hindered the further development of our carbon financial market to a certain extent.Therefore,this paper takes this opportunity to comb through the influencing factors and volatility of carbon emission permit price and make empirical analysis,which provides a reference for improving the construction of a unified national carbon market and has important practical guiding significance.This paper adopts the method of combining theoretical research with empirical analysis.In terms of influencing factors of carbon price,by analyzing the establishment and development process of Chinese carbon financial market and market mechanism,five pilot carbon markets with active trading are selected.Based on the equilibrium price theory,the influence mechanism of macroeconomic,weather and air quality,energy price,exchange rate factors and non-structural factors on carbon price is studied.Finally,the panel quantile regression model was used to regression and analyze these factors,and the following conclusions were reached: Both extreme weather and air quality factors have a positive effect on carbon price in our country.The former path is mainly through energy consumption of heating(or refrigeration)electrical appliances,which causes multiple emissions of carbon dioxide,while the latter is directly related to air pollution and energy consumption enterprises,which will cause the change of carbon quota demand.Macroeconomic factors have a significant positive impact on carbon price at the normal and lower points,which reflects the correlation between carbon market and traditional market.When the carbon price is at different loci,other influencing factors will show different effects,especially when the carbon price is at the extreme loci.In terms of carbon price volatility,this paper selected three representative carbon markets and the European Union carbon market.The GARCH family model was used to analyze the volatility characteristics of the carbon price yield of the four carbon markets.The empirical results show that the four carbon markets have the volatility aggregation of different strengths and weakness,Beijing,Guangdong and the European Union are strong,and Hubei is weak.There is a positive relationship between return rate and risk in Guangdong and EU markets,while there is no significant relationship between return rate and risk in the other two markets.In addition,the fluctuation of carbon emission yield rate of Beijing and EU carbon markets contains asymmetric characteristics.The former has obvious impact on the positive impact,while the latter has stronger fluctuation on the negative impact.Finally,combining the results of analysis with the national conditions of our country,we put forward some policy suggestions for the development of our carbon market from the aspects of regulation related market and exploring reasonable price regulation mechanism.